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Regla fiscal cuantitativa para consolidar y blindar las finanzas públicas de Colombia

Author

Listed:
  • Ignacio Lozano
  • Hernán Rincón
  • Miguel Sarmiento
  • Jorge Ramos

Abstract

Las reglas fiscales aumentan la credibilidad en la política económica, permiten un manejo fiscal contracíclico y sostenible intertemporalmente, y contribuyen a la estabilidad y al crecimiento económico. El gobierno colombiano ha usado reglas fiscales para limitar el crecimiento del gasto y el endeudamiento de los entes territoriales y para propiciar la transparencia y responsabilidad fiscal del sector público. Sin embargo, el alcance de dichas reglas ha sido limitado, como lo evidencia la naturaleza estructural del desequilibrio fiscal del gobierno central y la procíclicidad de su política. En este documento se formula y evalúa una regla fiscal cuantitativa de 1% del PIB de superávit primario estructural para el gobierno central, con el fin de consolidar el proceso de ajuste de las finanzas públicas del país y blindar su manejo hacia el futuro. La aplicación contrafactual de la regla muestra que si se hubiera adoptado a comienzos de la década, el gobierno hubiera hecho ahorros anuales de por lo menos 0,7% del PIB entre 2001 y 2006. Si se acogiera este año, se lograrían ahorros del mismo monto entre 2008 y 2011, con lo cual se reduciría el nivel actual de la deuda en 3 puntos del PIB al final del período.

Suggested Citation

  • Ignacio Lozano & Hernán Rincón & Miguel Sarmiento & Jorge Ramos, 2008. "Regla fiscal cuantitativa para consolidar y blindar las finanzas públicas de Colombia," Borradores de Economia 505, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
  • Handle: RePEc:bdr:borrec:505
    DOI: 10.32468/be.505
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    Cited by:

    1. Jairo Andrés Castaño Peña, 2020. "Las cláusulas de disciplina fiscal en las constituciones del Estado social de derecho : la sostenibilidad fiscal en Colombia y el principio de estabilidad presupuestaria en España," Books, Universidad Externado de Colombia, Facultad de Derecho, number 1186.
    2. Hernán Rincón, 2010. "Un análisis comparativo de reglas fiscales cuantitativas," Monetaria, CEMLA, vol. 0(3), pages 431-461, julio-sep.
    3. Ryszard Piasecki & Erico Wulf B, 2014. "Fiscal Policy Rules: Evidence From Chilean Economy," Review of Business and Finance Studies, The Institute for Business and Finance Research, vol. 5(2), pages 45-54.
    4. Portillo Riascos, Luis Hernando, 2021. "La posición cíclica de la política fiscal en Colombia durante el periodo 1990-2015," Revista Lecturas de Economía, Universidad de Antioquia, CIE, issue No. 95, pages 42-83, July.
    5. Jhorland Ayala-García & Clark Granger-Castaño & Ligia Alba Melo-Becerra, 2022. "Dinámica de las reglas fiscales subnacionales y la nacional," Documentos de Trabajo Sobre Economía Regional y Urbana 20037, Banco de la República, Economía Regional.
    6. Ignacio Lozano & Hernán Rincón & Miguel Sarmiento & Jorge Ramos, 2008. "Regla fiscal cuantitativa para consolidar y blindar las finanzas públicas de Colombia," Revista de Economía Institucional, Universidad Externado de Colombia - Facultad de Economía, vol. 10(19), pages 311-352, July-Dece.
    7. José A. Murillo & Tonatiuh Peña, 2010. "Futuros de productos básicos alimentarios: ¿son útiles para pronosticar la inflación?," Monetaria, CEMLA, vol. 0(3), pages 377-430, julio-sep.
    8. Gerson Javier Pérez-Valbuena & Jaime Bonet-Morón, 2018. "Municipal Fiscal Health in Colombian Main Cities," Documentos de Trabajo Sobre Economía Regional y Urbana 17016, Banco de la República, Economía Regional.
    9. Luis Hernando Portillo Riascos, 2021. "The Cyclical Position of The Fiscal Policy in Colombia During the Period 1990-2015," Lecturas de Economía, Universidad de Antioquia, Departamento de Economía, issue 95, pages 45-83, July-Dece.
    10. Luis Ignacio Lozano, 2011. "Caracterización macro de la política fiscal en Colombia y postura frente a la crisis global (2008-2009)," Revista Cuadernos de Economia, Universidad Nacional de Colombia, FCE, CID, June.
    11. Julieta Fuentes & Ricardo Salazar, 2010. "Cálculo de un indicador coincidente y adelantado de la actividad económica Salvadoreña," Monetaria, CEMLA, vol. 0(3), pages 289-376, julio-sep.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Reglas fiscales; credibilidad; política fiscal contracíclica; estabilidad; balance primario estructural.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E61 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Policy Objectives; Policy Designs and Consistency; Policy Coordination
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • H60 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - General
    • H61 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Budget; Budget Systems
    • H62 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Deficit; Surplus

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