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The Index of Leading Indicators: "Measurement without Theory," Thirty-Five Years Later

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  • Auerbach, Alan J

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  • Auerbach, Alan J, 1982. "The Index of Leading Indicators: "Measurement without Theory," Thirty-Five Years Later," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 64(4), pages 589-595, November.
  • Handle: RePEc:tpr:restat:v:64:y:1982:i:4:p:589-95
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Anne E. Peck, 1976. "Futures Markets, Supply Response, and Price Stability," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 90(3), pages 407-423.
    2. Leuthold, Raymond M, 1972. "Random Walk and Price Trends: The Live Cattle Futures Market," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 27(4), pages 879-889, September.
    3. Lucas, Robert E, Jr, 1978. "Asset Prices in an Exchange Economy," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(6), pages 1429-1445, November.
    4. Grossman, Sanford J & Stiglitz, Joseph E, 1980. "On the Impossibility of Informationally Efficient Markets," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, pages 393-408.
    5. Larry Martin & Philip Garcia, 1981. "The Price-Forecasting Performance of Futures Markets for Live Cattle and Hogs: A Disaggregated Analysis," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 63(2), pages 209-215.
    6. Zellner, Arnold & Palm, Franz, 1974. "Time series analysis and simultaneous equation econometric models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, pages 17-54.
    7. Brinegar, Claude S., 1970. "A Statistical Analysis of Speculative Price Behavior," Food Research Institute Studies, Stanford University, Food Research Institute.
    8. Turnovsky, Stephen J., 1979. "Futures markets, private storage, and price stabilization," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, pages 301-327.
    9. Richard E. Just & Gordon C. Rausser, 1981. "Commodity Price Forecasting with Large-Scale Econometric Models and the Futures Market," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 63(2), pages 197-208.
    10. Fama, Eugene F, 1970. "Efficient Capital Markets: A Review of Theory and Empirical Work," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 25(2), pages 383-417, May.
    11. Cox, Charles C, 1976. "Futures Trading and Market Information," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 84(6), pages 1215-1237, December.
    12. Gershon Feder & Richard E. Just & Andrew Schmitz, 1980. "Futures Markets and the Theory of the Firm under Price Uncertainty," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 94(2), pages 317-328.
    13. Holthausen, Duncan M, 1979. "Hedging and the Competitive Firm under Price Uncertainty," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, pages 989-995.
    14. Danthine, Jean-Pierre, 1978. "Information, futures prices, and stabilizing speculation," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 79-98, February.
    15. Larson, Arnold B., 1960. "Measurement of a Random Process in Futures Prices," Food Research Institute Studies, Stanford University, Food Research Institute, issue 03.
    16. Smidt, Seymour, 1965. "A Test of the Serial Independence Price Changes in Soybean Futures," Food Research Institute Studies, Stanford University, Food Research Institute, issue 02.
    17. Cargill, Thomas F & Rausser, Gordon C, 1975. "Temporal Price Behavior in Commodity Futures Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 30(4), pages 1043-1053, September.
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    Cited by:

    1. Chakravartti, Parma & Mundle, Sudipto, 2017. "An Automatic Leading Indicator Based Growth Forecast For 2016-17 and The Outlook Beyond," Working Papers 17/193, National Institute of Public Finance and Policy.
    2. Burcu Gurcihan Yunculer & Gonul Sengul & Arzu Yavuz, 2014. "A Quest for Leading Indicators of the Turkish Unemployment Rate," Central Bank Review, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey, vol. 14(1), pages 23-45.
    3. Rafal Kasperowicz, 2010. "Identification Of Industrial Cycle Leading Indicators Using Causality Test," Equilibrium. Quarterly Journal of Economics and Economic Policy, Institute of Economic Research, pages 47-59.
    4. Berneburg, Marian, 2003. "Composite Leading Indicators der amerikanischen Wirtschaft - Prognoseg├╝te des Conference Board und des OECD Ansatzes im Vergleich," IWH Discussion Papers 172, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
    5. Stephen K. McNees & Geoffrey M. B. Tootell, 1991. ""Whither New England"?," New England Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, issue Jul, pages 11-26.
    6. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1988. "A Probability Model of The Coincident Economic Indicators," NBER Working Papers 2772, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Edda Claus & Iris Claus, 2002. "How many jobs? A leading indicator model of New Zealand employment," Treasury Working Paper Series 02/13, New Zealand Treasury.
    8. Maximo Camacho, 2004. "Vector smooth transition regression models for US GDP and the composite index of leading indicators," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 23(3), pages 173-196.
    9. Rebecca A Emerson & David Hendry, 1994. "An evaluation of forecasting using leading indicators," Economics Papers 5., Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
    10. Seongwan Oh & Michael Waldman, 1989. "The New Perspective on Keynesian Coordination Failure: Theory and Evidence," UCLA Economics Working Papers 559, UCLA Department of Economics.
    11. Ernst A. Boehm, 2001. "The Contribution of Economic Indicator Analysis to Understanding and Forecasting Business Cycles," Melbourne Institute Working Paper Series wp2001n17, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, The University of Melbourne.
    12. Parma Chakravartti & Sudipto Mundle, 2017. "An Automatic Leading Indicator Based Growth Forecast For 2016-17 and The Outlook Beyond," Working Papers id:11773, eSocialSciences.

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