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The value of probability forecasts as predictors of cyclical downturns

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  • Kajal Lahiri
  • J. George Wang

Abstract

The joint subjective probabilities for negative GDP growth during two consecutive quarters obtained from the Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) are evaluated as predictors of cyclical downturns in the economy using the prequential approach of Dawid (1984) and the skill score decomposition of Murphy (1988).

Suggested Citation

  • Kajal Lahiri & J. George Wang, 2007. "The value of probability forecasts as predictors of cyclical downturns," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(1), pages 11-14.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:apeclt:v:14:y:2007:i:1:p:11-14
    DOI: 10.1080/13504850500425386
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    6. Grace Juhn & Prakash Loungani, 2002. "Further Cross-Country Evidence on the Accuracy of the Private Sector's Output Forecasts," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 49(1), pages 1-4.
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    Cited by:

    1. McDonald, Christopher & Thamotheram, Craig & Vahey, Shaun P. & Wakerly, Elizabeth C., 2015. "Assessing the Economic Value of Probabilistic Forecasts in the Presence of an Inflation Target," EMF Research Papers 09, Economic Modelling and Forecasting Group.
    2. Geoff Kenny & Thomas Kostka & Federico Masera, 2015. "Density characteristics and density forecast performance: a panel analysis," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 48(3), pages 1203-1231, May.
    3. Sergey V. Smirnov & Daria A. Avdeeva, 2016. "Wishful Bias in Predicting Us Recessions: Indirect Evidence," HSE Working papers WP BRP 135/EC/2016, National Research University Higher School of Economics.
    4. Garratt, Anthony & Lee, Kevin & Shields, Kalvinder, 2016. "Forecasting global recessions in a GVAR model of actual and expected output," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 374-390.

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