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L'influence de la politique monétaire sur les taux d'intérêt

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  • Jean-François Loué

Abstract

[eng] How are real long run interest rates determined throughout the world, and why have they remained so high since the beginning of the eighties? The inflation of the seventies, the collapse of the Sovietic block and its opening on the Western economy, the financial deregulation, and above all the accumulation of public deficits have been the main explanations advanced. Yet do not central banks, since they drive day after day the short run interest rates, also exert a determining influence upon real long run interest rates? Focusing on these questions, the article reexamines the main theorical frameworks refered to in the literature with respect to the way interest rates are determined, and tries to appreciate the influence of various phenomena, under the light of the econometric studies that have been published during the last fifteen years. The case of a world central bank and the case of small open economies are successively studied, before the questions of the integration of capital markets and their imperfections are raised. The author holds the wiew that, while capital markets seem more and more integrated, significant resistances still affect the international mobility of capitals. This leaves a field of opportunities open for the monetary policy, provided it is conducted for the sake of a sufficiently large zone. [fre] Comment sont déterminés les taux d'intérêt réels à long terme dans le monde et pourquoi sont-ils aussi élevés depuis le début des années quatre-vingt ? L'inflation des années soixante-dix, l'effondrement du bloc soviétique et son ouverture sur l'économie occidentale, la déréglementation financière, et surtout, l'accumulation des déficit publics, ont été les principales explications avancées. Mais les banques centrales qui pilotent au jour le jour les taux courts n'exercent elles pas aussi sur les taux longs réels une influence déterminante ? L'article aborde ces questions en réexaminant les principaux cadres de référence utilisés dans la littérature pour expliquer la formation des taux d'intérêt, et tente d'apprécier l'importance des mécanismes en cause à la lumière des travaux économétriques publiés depuis une quinzaine d'années. On étudie successivement le cas d'une banque centrale mondiale et la situation des petits pays en économie ouverte, avant de s'interroger sur l'intégration des marchés de capitaux et sur leurs imperfections. L'auteur soutient que, malgré une intégration financière de plus en plus poussée, il subsiste des freins sérieux à la mobilité internationale des capitaux. Cela constitue une opportunité pour la politique monétaire, dès lors qu'elle est menée pour un ensemble d'un poids suffisant.

Suggested Citation

  • Jean-François Loué, 1996. "L'influence de la politique monétaire sur les taux d'intérêt," Revue de l'OFCE, Programme National Persée, vol. 59(1), pages 101-133.
  • Handle: RePEc:prs:rvofce:ofce_0751-6614_1996_num_59_1_1436
    Note: DOI:10.3406/ofce.1996.1436
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1992. "A procedure for predicting recessions with leading indicators: econometric issues and recent performance," Working Paper Series, Macroeconomic Issues 92-7, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
    2. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1989. "New Indexes of Coincident and Leading Economic Indicators," NBER Chapters,in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1989, Volume 4, pages 351-409 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1993. "A Procedure for Predicting Recessions with Leading Indicators: Econometric Issues and Recent Experience," NBER Chapters,in: Business Cycles, Indicators and Forecasting, pages 95-156 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    Cited by:

    1. Olivier Passet, 1997. "Le rôle des déficits publics dans la formation des taux d'intérêt," Revue de l'OFCE, Programme National Persée, vol. 62(1), pages 29-74.

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