Tests of equal forecast accuracy for overlapping models
This paper examines the asymptotic and finite-sample properties of tests of equal forecast accuracy when the models being compared are overlapping in the sense of Vuong (1989). Two models are overlapping when the true model contains just a subset of variables common to the larger sets of variables included in the competing forecasting models. We consider an out-of-sample version of the two-step testing procedure recommended by Vuong but also show that an exact one-step procedure is sometimes applicable. When the models are overlapping, we provide a simple-to-use fixed regressor wild bootstrap that can be used to conduct valid inference. Monte Carlo simulations generally support the theoretical results: the two-step procedure is conservative while the one-step procedure can be accurately sized when appropriate. We conclude with an empirical application comparing the predictive content of credit spreads to growth in real stock prices for forecasting U.S. real GDP growth.
|Date of creation:||2011|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: 1455 East 6th St., Cleveland OH 44114|
Web page: http://www.clevelandfed.org/
More information through EDIRC
|Order Information:|| Email: |
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Randi Næs & Johannes A. Skjeltorp & Bernt Arne Ødegard, 2008.
"Liquidity and the business cycle,"
2008/11, Norges Bank.
- Fornari Fabio & Mele Antonio, 2013.
"Financial Volatility and Economic Activity,"
Journal of Financial Management, Markets and Institutions,
Società editrice il Mulino, issue 2, pages 155-198, December.
- Fabio Fornari & Antonio Mele, 2009. "Financial volatility and economic activity," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 29309, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
- Antonio Mele, 2009. "Financial Volatility and Economic Activity," FMG Discussion Papers dp642, Financial Markets Group.
- Todd E. Clark & Michael W. McCracken, 1999.
"Tests of equal forecast accuracy and encompassing for nested models,"
Research Working Paper
99-11, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
- Clark, Todd E. & McCracken, Michael W., 2001. "Tests of equal forecast accuracy and encompassing for nested models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 105(1), pages 85-110, November.
- Todd E. Clark & Michael W. McCracken, 2000. "Tests of Equal Forecast Accuracy and Encompassing for Nested Models," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 0319, Econometric Society.
- Todd E. Clark & Michael McCracken, 1999. "Tests of Equal Forecast Accuracy and Encompassing for Nested Models," Computing in Economics and Finance 1999 1241, Society for Computational Economics.
- West, Kenneth D, 1996.
"Asymptotic Inference about Predictive Ability,"
Econometric Society, vol. 64(5), pages 1067-84, September.
- Diebold, Francis X & Mariano, Roberto S, 2002.
"Comparing Predictive Accuracy,"
Journal of Business & Economic Statistics,
American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 134-44, January.
- Todd Clark & Michael McCracken, 2005. "Evaluating Direct Multistep Forecasts," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 24(4), pages 369-404.
- Raffaella Giacomini & Halbert White, 2006.
"Tests of Conditional Predictive Ability,"
Econometric Society, vol. 74(6), pages 1545-1578, November.
- Giacomini, Raffaella & White, Halbert, 2003. "Tests of Conditional Predictive Ability," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series qt5jk0j5jh, Department of Economics, UC San Diego.
- Raffaella Giacomini & Halbert White, 2003. "Tests of conditional predictive ability," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 572, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Raffaella Giacomini & Halbert White, 2003. "Tests of Conditional Predictive Ability," Econometrics 0308001, EconWPA.
- Hansen, Bruce E., 1992. "Convergence to Stochastic Integrals for Dependent Heterogeneous Processes," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 8(04), pages 489-500, December.
- Wegener, Christian & von Nitzsch, Rüdiger & Cengiz, Cetin, 2010. "An advanced perspective on the predictability in hedge fund returns," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(11), pages 2694-2708, November.
- McCracken, Michael W., 2007. "Asymptotics for out of sample tests of Granger causality," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 140(2), pages 719-752, October.
- Vuong, Quang H, 1989. "Likelihood Ratio Tests for Model Selection and Non-nested Hypotheses," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(2), pages 307-33, March.
- Robert Rich & Jason Bram & Andrew Haughwout & James Orr & Rae Rosen & Rebecca Sela, 2005. "Using Regional Economic Indexes to Forecast Tax Bases: Evidence from New York," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 87(4), pages 627-634, November.
- Jon Faust & John H. Rogers & Jonathan H. Wright, 2000.
"News and noise in G-7 GDP announcements,"
International Finance Discussion Papers
690, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Corradi, Valentina & Swanson, Norman R. & Olivetti, Claudia, 2001. "Predictive ability with cointegrated variables," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 104(2), pages 315-358, September.
- Wright, Jonathan H. & Zhou, Hao, 2009. "Bond risk premia and realized jump risk," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(12), pages 2333-2345, December.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fip:fedcwp:1121. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (4D Library)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.