IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/onb/oenbwp/151.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Why did we fail to predict GDP during the last cycle? A breakdown of forecast errors for Austria

Author

Listed:

Abstract

This paper proposes an informal taxonomy to break down forecast errors of institutional forecasts. This breakdown is demonstrated for the forecasts of the Oesterreichische Nationalbank (OeNB) for Austrian GDP. The main result is that the largest part of the forecast errors can be explained by erroneous projections of the international environment. Data revisions also substantially contribute to the forecasting error for the forecast of the current year. Domestic exogenous variables play a minor role only. The inclusion of judgement improves the forecasting performance.

Suggested Citation

  • Christian Ragacs & Martin Schneider, 2009. "Why did we fail to predict GDP during the last cycle? A breakdown of forecast errors for Austria," Working Papers 151, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank).
  • Handle: RePEc:onb:oenbwp:151
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.oenb.at/dam/jcr:594c7acb-cf61-42b3-bb71-56a5856012ab/wp151_tcm16-97772.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ricardo Mestre & Peter McAdam, 2011. "Is forecasting with large models informative? Assessing the role of judgement in macroeconomic forecasts," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 30(3), pages 303-324, April.
    2. Markus Leibrecht & Martin Schneider, 2006. "AQM-06: The Macro economic Model of the OeNB," Working Papers 132, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank).
    3. Lupi, Claudio & Peracchi, Franco, 2003. "The limits of statistical information: How important are GDP revisions in Italy?," Economics & Statistics Discussion Papers esdp03005, University of Molise, Dept. EGSeI.
    4. Clements,Michael & Hendry,David, 1998. "Forecasting Economic Time Series," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521632423, May.
    5. Allan Timmermann, 2007. "An Evaluation of the World Economic Outlook Forecasts," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 54(1), pages 1-33, May.
    6. Andrew Filardo, 2004. "The 2001 US recession: what did recession prediction models tell us?," BIS Working Papers 148, Bank for International Settlements.
    7. Marie Diron, 2008. "Short-term forecasts of euro area real GDP growth: an assessment of real-time performance based on vintage data," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(5), pages 371-390.
    8. Diron, Marie, 2006. "Short-term forecasts of euro area real GDP growth: an assessment of real-time performance based on vintage data," Working Paper Series 622, European Central Bank.
    9. Michael P. Clements & David F. Hendry, 2001. "Forecasting Non-Stationary Economic Time Series," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262531895, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Forecast error taxonomy; Breakdown; Austria; Judgement; Technical forecast.;

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:onb:oenbwp:151. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Markus Knell and Helmut Stix). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/oenbbat.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.