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Forecast Failure, Expectations Formation, and the Lucas Critique

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Since forecast failure is due to unanticipated large shifts in deterministic factors,'sensible' agents should adopt 'robust forecasting rules'. Unless the model coincides with the generating mechanism, one cannot even prove that causal variables will dominate non-causal in forecasting. In such a non-stationary world, 'rational expectations' do not have an epistemologically-sound basis: agents cannot know how all relevant information enters the joint data density at every point in time. Thus, although econometric models 'break down' intermittently when deterministic shifts occur, that is not due to the Lucas critique and need not impugen their value for policy analyses.

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  • David Hendry, 2000. "Forecast Failure, Expectations Formation, and the Lucas Critique," Economics Papers 2002-W8, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
  • Handle: RePEc:nuf:econwp:0208
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    Cited by:

    1. Ajit Karnik & Cedwyn Fernandes, 2009. "Natural resource dependence: a macroeconometric model for the United Arab Emirates," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 41(9), pages 1157-1174.
    2. Neil R. Ericsson, 2000. "Predictable uncertainty in economic forecasting," International Finance Discussion Papers 695, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    3. Olson, Eric & Wohar, Mark E., 2016. "An evaluation of ECB policy in the Euro's big four," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 203-213.
    4. Angel Asensio, 2012. "On Keynes’s Seminal Innovation and Related Essential Features: Revisiting the Notion of Equilibrium in The General Theory," Chapters,in: Keynes’s General Theory, chapter 1 Edward Elgar Publishing.
    5. Hendry, David F. & Mizon, Grayham E., 2001. "Reformulating empirical macro-econometric modelling," Discussion Paper Series In Economics And Econometrics 104, Economics Division, School of Social Sciences, University of Southampton.
    6. Angel Asensio, 2013. "Teaching Keynes’s theory to neoclassically formed minds," Chapters,in: Teaching Post Keynesian Economics, chapter 10, pages 163-186 Edward Elgar Publishing.

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