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A Note on the Variance of Ex-Post Forecasts in Econometric Models


  • Calzolari, Giorgio


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  • Calzolari, Giorgio, 1981. "A Note on the Variance of Ex-Post Forecasts in Econometric Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(6), pages 1593-1595, November.
  • Handle: RePEc:ecm:emetrp:v:49:y:1981:i:6:p:1593-95

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Blanchard, Olivier Jean & Quah, Danny, 1989. "The Dynamic Effects of Aggregate Demand and Supply Disturbances," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(4), pages 655-673, September.
    2. Beveridge, Stephen & Nelson, Charles R., 1981. "A new approach to decomposition of economic time series into permanent and transitory components with particular attention to measurement of the `business cycle'," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 7(2), pages 151-174.
    3. Jim Dolmas, 1998. "Risk Preferences and the Welfare Cost of Business Cycles," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 1(3), pages 646-676, July.
    4. Kazemi, Hossein B, 1992. "An Intertemporal Model of Asset Prices in a Markov Economy with a Limiting Stationary Distribution," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 5(1), pages 85-104.
    5. Baxter, Marianne & Crucini, Mario J, 1995. "Business Cycles and the Asset Structure of Foreign Trade," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 36(4), pages 821-854, November.
    6. Hansen, Lars Peter & Jagannathan, Ravi, 1991. "Implications of Security Market Data for Models of Dynamic Economies," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 99(2), pages 225-262, April.
    7. Campbell, John Y, 1996. "Understanding Risk and Return," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 104(2), pages 298-345, April.
    8. Nicola Anderson & John Sleath, 2001. "New estimates of the UK real and nominal yield curves," Bank of England working papers 126, Bank of England.
    9. Epstein, Larry G & Zin, Stanley E, 1989. "Substitution, Risk Aversion, and the Temporal Behavior of Consumption and Asset Returns: A Theoretical Framework," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(4), pages 937-969, July.
    10. John Y. Campbell & John H. Cochrane, 1994. "By force of habit: a consumption-based explanation of aggregate stock market behavior," Working Papers 94-17, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
    11. Ravi Bansal & Amir Yaron, 2004. "Risks for the Long Run: A Potential Resolution of Asset Pricing Puzzles," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 59(4), pages 1481-1509, August.
    12. S. Rao Aiyagari, 1994. "Uninsured Idiosyncratic Risk and Aggregate Saving," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 109(3), pages 659-684.
    13. Ferson, Wayne E. & Constantinides, George M., 1991. "Habit persistence and durability in aggregate consumption: Empirical tests," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 199-240, October.
    14. Cochrane, John H, 1988. "How Big Is the Random Walk in GNP?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 96(5), pages 893-920, October.
    15. Matthew Shapiro & Mark Watson, 1988. "Sources of Business Cycles Fluctuations," NBER Chapters,in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1988, Volume 3, pages 111-156 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    16. Hansen, Gary D., 1997. "Technical progress and aggregate fluctuations," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 21(6), pages 1005-1023, June.
    17. Luttmer, Erzo G J, 1996. "Asset Pricing in Economies with Frictions," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 64(6), pages 1439-1467, November.
    18. Abel, Andrew B., 1999. "Risk premia and term premia in general equilibrium," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(1), pages 3-33, February.
    19. Donald A. Walker (ed.), 2000. "Equilibrium," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, volume 0, number 1585.
    20. Bansal, Ravi & Lehmann, Bruce N., 1997. "Growth-Optimal Portfolio Restrictions On Asset Pricing Models," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 1(02), pages 333-354, June.
    21. John H. Cochrane & Lars Peter Hansen, 1992. "Asset Pricing Explorations for Macroeconomics," NBER Chapters,in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1992, Volume 7, pages 115-182 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    22. Hall, Anthony D & Anderson, Heather M & Granger, Clive W J, 1992. "A Cointegration Analysis of Treasury Bill Yields," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 74(1), pages 116-126, February.
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    Cited by:

    1. Hendry, David F. & Clements, Michael P., 2003. "Economic forecasting: some lessons from recent research," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 301-329, March.
    2. Bianchi, Carlo & Brillet, Jean-Louis & Calzolari, Giorgio & Panattoni, Lorenzo, 1987. "Forecast variance in simultaneous equation models: analytic and Monte Carlo methods," MPRA Paper 24541, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. David F. Hendry, 2002. "Forecast Failure, Expectations Formation and the Lucas Critique," Annals of Economics and Statistics, GENES, issue 67-68, pages 21-40.
    4. Calzolari, Giorgio, 1987. "La varianza delle previsioni nei modelli econometrici
      [Forecast variance in econometric models]
      ," MPRA Paper 23866, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Bianchi, Carlo & Calzolari, Giorgio, 1983. "Standard errors of forecasts in dynamic simulation of nonlinear econometric models: some empirical results," MPRA Paper 22657, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 1983.
    6. Neil R. Ericsson & Jaime Marquez, 1998. "A framework for economic forecasting," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 1(Conferenc), pages 228-266.
    7. Calzolari, Giorgio & Panattoni, Lorenzo, 1984. "Evaluating Forecast Uncertainty in Econometric Models: The Effect of Alternative Estimators of Maximum Likelihood Covariance Matrix," MPRA Paper 28806, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Bianchi, Carlo & Calzolari, Giorgio, 1983. "Confidence intervals of forecasts from nonlinear econometric models," MPRA Paper 29025, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Bianchi, Carlo & Calzolari, Giorgio & Weihs, Claus, 1986. "Parametric and nonparametric Monte Carlo estimates of standard errors of forecasts in econometric models," MPRA Paper 29120, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Calzolari, Giorgio & Bianchi, Carlo & Corsi, Paolo & Panattoni, Lorenzo, 1982. "Uncertainty of policy recommendations for nonlinear econometric models: some empirical results," MPRA Paper 28846, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. David Hendry, 2000. "A General Forecast-error Taxonomy," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 0608, Econometric Society.
    12. David F. Hendry & Michael P. Clements, 1994. "Can Econometrics Improve Economic Forecasting?," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics (SJES), Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics (SSES), vol. 130(III), pages 267-298, September.

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