A framework for economic forecasting
This paper proposes a tripartite framework of design, evaluation, and post-evaluation analysis for generating and interpreting economic forecasts. This framework?s value is illustrated by re-examining mean square forecast errors from dynamic models and nonlinearity biases from empirical forecasts of US external trade. Previous studies have examined properties such as nonlinearity bias and the possible nonmonotonicity and nonexistence of mean square forecast errors in isolation from other aspects of the forecasting process, resulting in inefficient forecasting techniques and seemingly puzzling phenomena. The framework developed reveals how each such property follows from systematically integrating all aspects of the forecasting process.
To our knowledge, this item is not available for
download. To find whether it is available, there are three
1. Check below under "Related research" whether another version of this item is available online.
2. Check on the provider's web page whether it is in fact available.
3. Perform a search for a similarly titled item that would be available.
Volume (Year): 1 (1998)
Issue (Month): ConferenceIssue ()
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Office of the Secretary-General, Rm E35, The Bute Building, Westburn Lane, St Andrews, KY16 9TS, UK|
Phone: +44 1334 462479
Web page: http://www.res.org.uk/
More information through EDIRC
|Order Information:||Web: http://www.ectj.org|
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Brown, Bryan W. & Mariano, Roberto S., 1989. "Predictors in Dynamic Nonlinear Models: Large-Sample Behavior," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 5(03), pages 430-452, December.
- Beach, Charles M & MacKinnon, James G, 1978. "A Maximum Likelihood Procedure for Regression with Autocorrelated Errors," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(1), pages 51-58, January.
- Calzolari, Giorgio, 1981. "A Note on the Variance of Ex-Post Forecasts in Econometric Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(6), pages 1593-95, November.
- Bianchi, Carlo & Calzolari, Giorgio & Brillet, Jean-Louis, 1987. "Measuring forecast uncertainty : A review with evaluation based on a macro model of the French economy," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 3(2), pages 211-227.
- Calzolari, Giorgio, 1987. "Forecast Variance in Dynamic Simulation of Simultaneous Equation Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(6), pages 1473-76, November.
- Calzolari, Giorgio & Sterbenz, Frederic P, 1986. "Control Variates to Estimate the Reduced Form Variances in Econometric Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 54(6), pages 1483-90, November.
- Baillie, Richard T, 1981. "Prediction from the Dynamic Simultaneous Equation Model with Vector Autoregressive Errors," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(5), pages 1331-37, September.
- Calzolari, Giorgio, 1979. "Antithetic variates to estimate the simulation bias in non-linear models," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 4(4), pages 323-328.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ect:emjrnl:v:1:y:1998:i:conferenceissue:p:c228-c266. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Wiley-Blackwell Digital Licensing)or (Christopher F. Baum)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.