On the predictability of GDP data revisions in the Netherlands
The first part of this paper is based on a study by Faust, Rogers and Wright (2004). They found someevidence of predictability of GDP revisions for the G-7 countrie s, especially for the UK, Italy and Japan. In this paper we investigate the quality of the first Dutch GDP releases by using the same technique. Our findings suggest that Dutch GDP revisions are also predictable to some extent. These results are strengthened when applying the more general state-space estimation procedure. The statespace model is used to estimate the final or unobserved data, given the preliminary or observed data.
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- Faust, Jon & Rogers, John H & Wright, Jonathan H, 2005.
"News and Noise in G-7 GDP Announcements,"
Journal of Money, Credit and Banking,
Blackwell Publishing, vol. 37(3), pages 403-419, June.
- Robert York & Paul Atkinson, 1997. "The Reliability of Quarterly National Accounts in Seven Major Countries: A User's Perspective," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 171, OECD Publishing.
- Kavajecz, Kenneth & Collins, Sean, 1995. "Rationality of Preliminary Money Stock Estimates," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 77(1), pages 32-41, February.
- Swanson, N.R. & van Dijk, D.J.C., 2001.
"Are statistical reporting agencies getting it right? Data rationality and business cycle asymmetry,"
Econometric Institute Research Papers
EI 2001-28, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
- Swanson, Norman R. & van Dijk, Dick, 2006. "Are Statistical Reporting Agencies Getting It Right? Data Rationality and Business Cycle Asymmetry," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 24, pages 24-42, January.
- N. Gregory Mankiw & Matthew D. Shapiro, 1986. "News or Noise? An Analysis of GNP Revisions," NBER Working Papers 1939, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Howrey, E Philip, 1984. "Data Revision, Reconstruction, and Prediction: An Application to Inventory Investment," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 66(3), pages 386-393, August.
- Howrey, E Philip, 1978. "The Use of Preliminary Data in Econometric Forecasting," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 60(2), pages 193-200, May.
- William Conrad & Carol Corrado, 1978. "Applications of the Kalman filter to revisions in monthly retail sales estimates," Special Studies Papers 125, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
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