IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bla/manchs/v77y2009i6p699-717.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Penalized‐R2 Criteria For Model Selection

Author

Listed:
  • LARRY W. TAYLOR

Abstract

It is beneficial to observe that popular model selection criteria for the linear model are equivalent to penalized versions of R2. Let PR2 refer to any one of these model selection criteria. Then PR2 serves the dual purpose of selecting the model and summarizing the resulting fit subject to the penalty function. Furthermore, it is straightforward to extend the logic of PR2 to instrumental variables estimation and the non‐parametric selection of regressors. For two‐stage least squares estimation, a simulation study investigates the finite‐sample performance of PR2 to select the correct model in cases of either strong or weak instruments.

Suggested Citation

  • Larry W. Taylor, 2009. "Penalized‐R2 Criteria For Model Selection," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 77(6), pages 699-717, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:manchs:v:77:y:2009:i:6:p:699-717
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1467-9957.2009.02123.x
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-9957.2009.02123.x
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1111/j.1467-9957.2009.02123.x?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Kinal, Terrence & Lahiri, Kajal, 1984. "A Note on "Selection of Regressors."," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 25(3), pages 625-629, October.
    2. repec:bla:ecorec:v:69:y:1993:i:206:p:233-38 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Nell, Kevin S. & Santos, Luis Delfim, 2008. "The Feldstein-Horioka hypothesis versus the long-run solvency constraint model: A critical assessment," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 98(1), pages 66-70, January.
    4. Stock, James H & Wright, Jonathan H & Yogo, Motohiro, 2002. "A Survey of Weak Instruments and Weak Identification in Generalized Method of Moments," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(4), pages 518-529, October.
    5. Hidalgo, Javier, 2002. "Consistent order selection with strongly dependent data and its application to efficient estimation," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 6856, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    6. Coutts, Ken & Norman, Neville R., 2007. "Global influences on UK manufacturing prices: 1970-2000," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 51(5), pages 1205-1221, July.
    7. repec:bla:obuest:v:61:y:1999:i:2:p:255-81 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Granger, Clive W.J., 2007. "Forecasting--looking back and forward: Paper to celebrate the 50th anniversary of the Econometrics Institute at the Erasmus University, Rotterdam," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 138(1), pages 3-13, May.
    9. Larry Taylor, 1997. "An R2criterion based on optimal predictors," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(1), pages 109-118.
    10. M. Hashem Pesaran & Larry W. Taylor, 1999. "Diagnostics for IV Regressions," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 61(2), pages 255-281, May.
    11. Granger, Clive W. J. & King, Maxwell L. & White, Halbert, 1995. "Comments on testing economic theories and the use of model selection criteria," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 67(1), pages 173-187, May.
    12. Geweke, John F & Meese, Richard, 1981. "Estimating Regression Models of Finite but Unknown Order," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 22(1), pages 55-70, February.
    13. Amemiya, Takeshi, 1980. "Selection of Regressors," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 21(2), pages 331-354, June.
    14. Pesaran, M Hashem & Smith, Richard J, 1994. "A Generalized R[superscript]2 Criterion for Regression Models Estimated by the Instrumental Variables Method," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 62(3), pages 705-710, May.
    15. M. H. Pesaran, 1974. "On the General Problem of Model Selection," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 41(2), pages 153-171.
    16. Lavergne, Pascal & Vuong, Quang H, 1996. "Nonparametric Selection of Regressors: The Nonnested Case," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 64(1), pages 207-219, January.
    17. Fumitaka Furuoka, 2007. "Does the “Phillips Curve” Really Exist? New Empirical Evidence from Malaysia," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 5(16), pages 1-14.
    18. Timmermann, Allan, 2008. "Reply to the discussion of Elusive Return Predictability," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 24(1), pages 29-30.
    19. Cramer, J. S., 1987. "Mean and variance of R2 in small and moderate samples," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 35(2-3), pages 253-266, July.
    20. Hidalgo, Javier, 2002. "Consistent order selection with strongly dependent data and its application to efficient estimation," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 110(2), pages 213-239, October.
    21. Dias, Ronaldo & Garcia, Nancy L., 2007. "Consistent estimator for basis selection based on a proxy of the Kullback-Leibler distance," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 141(1), pages 167-178, November.
    22. Javier Hidalgo, 2002. "Consistent Order Selection with Strongly Dependent Data and its Application to Efficient Estimation," STICERD - Econometrics Paper Series 430, Suntory and Toyota International Centres for Economics and Related Disciplines, LSE.
    23. Timmermann, Allan, 2008. "Elusive return predictability," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 24(1), pages 1-18.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Carlos Medel, 2012. "¿Akaike o Schwarz? ¿Cuál elegir para Predecir el PIB Chileno?," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 658, Central Bank of Chile.
    2. Luc Anselin, 1988. "Model Validation in Spatial Econometrics: A Review and Evaluation of Alternative Approaches," International Regional Science Review, , vol. 11(3), pages 279-316, December.
    3. Baillie, Richard T. & Kapetanios, George & Papailias, Fotis, 2014. "Modified information criteria and selection of long memory time series models," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 116-131.
    4. Richard T. Baillie & George Kapetanios, 2006. "Nonlinear Models with Strongly Dependent Processes and Applications to Forward Premia and Real Exchange Rates," Working Papers 570, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
    5. Baillie, Richard T. & Kapetanios, George, 2008. "Nonlinear models for strongly dependent processes with financial applications," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 147(1), pages 60-71, November.
    6. Massacci, Daniele, 2017. "Least squares estimation of large dimensional threshold factor models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 197(1), pages 101-129.
    7. Zhipeng Liao & Xiaoxia Shi, 2020. "A nondegenerate Vuong test and post selection confidence intervals for semi/nonparametric models," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 11(3), pages 983-1017, July.
    8. Demetrescu, Matei & Georgiev, Iliyan & Rodrigues, Paulo M.M. & Taylor, A.M. Robert, 2022. "Testing for episodic predictability in stock returns," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 227(1), pages 85-113.
    9. Cem Cakmakli & Dick van Dijk, 2010. "Getting the Most out of Macroeconomic Information for Predicting Stock Returns and Volatility," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 10-115/4, Tinbergen Institute.
    10. Bernard Fingleton & Simonetta Longhi, 2013. "The Effects Of Agglomeration On Wages: Evidence From The Micro-Level," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 53(3), pages 443-463, August.
    11. Sýdýka Baþçý & Asad Zaman & Arzdar Kiracý, 2010. "Variance Estimates and Model Selection," International Econometric Review (IER), Econometric Research Association, vol. 2(2), pages 57-72, September.
    12. Daniel Fernández, 2011. "Suficiencia del capital y previsiones de la banca uruguaya por su exposición al sector industrial," Monetaria, CEMLA, vol. 0(4), pages 517-589, octubre-d.
    13. Daniel Mantilla-García & Vijay Vaidyanathan, 2017. "Predicting stock returns in the presence of uncertain structural changes and sample noise," Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, Springer;Swiss Society for Financial Market Research, vol. 31(3), pages 357-391, August.
    14. Odendahl, Florens & Rossi, Barbara & Sekhposyan, Tatevik, 2023. "Evaluating forecast performance with state dependence," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 237(2).
    15. Rahman, Oriana & Semenov, Andrei, 2025. "Subjective probabilities under behavioral heuristics," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 98(C).
    16. Massimo Guidolin & Manuela Pedio & Milena T. Petrova, 2023. "The Predictability of Real Estate Excess Returns: An Out-of-Sample Economic Value Analysis," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 67(1), pages 108-149, July.
    17. Javier Pereda, 2011. "Estimación de la tasa natural de interés para Perú: un enfoque financiero," Monetaria, CEMLA, vol. 0(4), pages 429-459, octubre-d.
    18. Baetje, Fabian & Menkhoff, Lukas, 2016. "Equity premium prediction: Are economic and technical indicators unstable?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(4), pages 1193-1207.
    19. Harri Pönkä, 2017. "Predicting the direction of US stock markets using industry returns," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 52(4), pages 1451-1480, June.
    20. Sander, Magnus, 2018. "Market timing over the business cycle," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 130-145.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bla:manchs:v:77:y:2009:i:6:p:699-717. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/semanuk.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.