IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/fip/feddwp/98007.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey: Survey Methodology, Performance and Forecast Accuracy

Author

Listed:
  • Jesus Cañas
  • Aparna Jayashankar
  • Emily Kerr
  • Diego Morales-Burnett

Abstract

The Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey (TMOS) is a monthly survey of area manufacturers conducted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas. TMOS indexes provide timely information on manufacturing activity in Texas, which is useful for understanding broader changes in regional economic conditions. This paper describes the survey methodology and analyzes the explanatory and predictive power of TMOS indexes with regard to other measures of state economic activity. Regression analysis shows that several TMOS indexes successfully track changes in Texas employment, gross domestic product and consumer price index. Forecasting exercises show that several TMOS indexes are also useful in predicting future changes in some of these regional economic indicators.

Suggested Citation

  • Jesus Cañas & Aparna Jayashankar & Emily Kerr & Diego Morales-Burnett, 2024. "Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey: Survey Methodology, Performance and Forecast Accuracy," Working Papers 2402, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:feddwp:98007
    DOI: 10.24149/wp2402
    Note: This paper is related to Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Working Paper 1416,"Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey: Survey Methodology and Performance."
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.dallasfed.org/-/media/documents/research/papers/2024/wp2402.pdf
    File Function: Full text
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.24149/wp2402?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    More about this item

    Keywords

    manufacturing; surveys; forecasting;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • L60 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Manufacturing - - - General
    • C83 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology; Computer Programs - - - Survey Methods; Sampling Methods
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fip:feddwp:98007. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Amy Chapman (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/frbdaus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.