IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/ris/apltrx/0027.html

Modeling Dynamics of Oil Prices under Different Regimes of Oil Market Development

Author

Listed:
  • Leonid Varshavsky

    (Central Economics and Mathematics Institute of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Russia)

Abstract

The problem of modeling oil prices over the last three decades is analyzed. Because of radical changes of regimes on the oil market necessity of studying two periods of time (the 1980’s to the end of 1990’s and the end of 1990’s to 2008) is discussed. Two aggregate models reflecting the situation over the two periods are built: an econometric model of dynamics of oil market indicators and aggregate monetarist model of the US economy including an oil price prediction bloc. The influence of priorities of monetary policy on dynamics of macroeconomic indicators and oil prices is studied. Necessity of a parallel study of influence of high oil prices on oil sensitive industries is emphasized

Suggested Citation

  • Leonid Varshavsky, 2009. "Modeling Dynamics of Oil Prices under Different Regimes of Oil Market Development," Applied Econometrics, Russian Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 13(1), pages 70-88.
    • Handle: RePEc:ris:apltrx:0027
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://pe.cemi.rssi.ru/pe_2009_1_70-88.pdf
    File Function: Full text
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Guy Debelle, 1999. "Inflation Targeting and Output Stabilisation," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp1999-08, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    2. Berg, Elin & Kverndokk, Snorre & Rosendahl, Knut Einar, 1998. "Gains from cartelisation in the oil market," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 26(9), pages 725-727, August.
    3. Greene, David L & Jones, Donald W & Leiby, Paul N, 1998. "The outlook for US oil dependence," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 26(1), pages 55-69, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Leonid Varshavsky, 2010. "Crisis of financial system and evolution of commodities market," Applied Econometrics, Russian Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 17(1), pages 30-44.
    2. Варшавский Л.Е., 2011. "Финансовая Система И Товарные Рынки: Вакханалия Либерализации И Попытки Регулирования," Журнал Экономика и математические методы (ЭММ), Центральный Экономико-Математический Институт (ЦЭМИ), vol. 47(1), январь.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Akosah, Nana Kwame & Alagidede, Imhotep Paul & Schaling, Eric, 2020. "Testing for asymmetry in monetary policy rule for small-open developing economies: Multiscale Bayesian quantile evidence from Ghana," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 22(C).
    2. Guy Debelle, 2001. "The Case for Inflation Targeting in East Asian Countries," RBA Annual Conference Volume (Discontinued), in: David Gruen & John Simon (ed.),Future Directions for Monetary Policies in East Asia, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    3. Elin Berg & Snorre Kverndokk & Knut Einar Rosendahl, 1999. "Optimal Oil Exploration under Climate Treaties," Discussion Papers 245, Statistics Norway, Research Department.
    4. Melanie Parravano & Luis Enrique Pedauga, 2008. "Oil market dynamics: A Markow chain analysis," Economía, Instituto de Investigaciones Económicas y Sociales (IIES). Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Sociales. Universidad de Los Andes. Mérida, Venezuela, vol. 33(25), pages 87-115, january-j.
    5. Masih, Rumi & Peters, Sanjay & De Mello, Lurion, 2011. "Oil price volatility and stock price fluctuations in an emerging market: Evidence from South Korea," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(5), pages 975-986, September.
    6. Waisman, Henri & Rozenberg, Julie & Hourcade, Jean Charles, 2013. "Monetary compensations in climate policy through the lens of a general equilibrium assessment: The case of oil-exporting countries," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 951-961.
    7. Nikola Fabris & Milena Lazić, 2022. "Evaluating the Role of the Exchange Rate in Monetary Policy Reaction Function of Advanced and Emerging Market Economies," Journal of Central Banking Theory and Practice, Central bank of Montenegro, vol. 11(2), pages 77-96.
    8. Hans-Peter Weikard, 2016. "Phosphorus recycling and food security in the long run: a conceptual modelling approach," Food Security: The Science, Sociology and Economics of Food Production and Access to Food, Springer;The International Society for Plant Pathology, vol. 8(2), pages 405-414, April.
    9. Lars E. O. Svensson, 2002. "Monetary policy and real stabilization," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 261-312.
    10. Ferya Kadioglu & Nilufer Ozdemir & Gokhan Yilmaz, 2000. "Inflation Targeting in Developing Countries," Discussion Papers 0006, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
    11. T.C.Y. Kam & G.C. Lim, 2001. "Interest Rate Smoothing and Inflation-Output Variabilityin a Small Open Economy," Department of Economics - Working Papers Series 817, The University of Melbourne.
    12. Daniel M. Rees & Penelope Smith & Jamie Hall, 2016. "A Multi-sector Model of the Australian Economy," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 92(298), pages 374-408, September.
    13. Sheng, Xin & Marfatia, Hardik A. & Gupta, Rangan & Ji, Qiang, 2023. "The non-linear response of US state-level tradable and non-tradable inflation to oil shocks: The role of oil-dependence," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    14. Gabriel Sterne, 2002. "Inflation Targets in a Global Context," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Norman Loayza & Raimundo Soto & Norman Loayza (Series Editor) & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel (Series Editor) (ed.),Inflation Targeting: Desing, Performance, Challenges, edition 1, volume 5, chapter 2, pages 023-078, Central Bank of Chile.
    15. Stirling, Andy, 2010. "Multicriteria diversity analysis: A novel heuristic framework for appraising energy portfolios," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(4), pages 1622-1634, April.
    16. Berthod, Mathias & Benchekroun, Hassan, 2019. "On agreements in a nonrenewable resource market: A cooperative differential game approach," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 98(C), pages 23-39.
    17. Dixon, P.B. & Giesecke, J.A. & Rimmer, M.T. & Rose, A., 2009. "The Economic Consequences of U.S. Border Closure in Response to a Security Threat: A Dynamic CGE Assessment," Conference papers 331893, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    18. António Duarte, 2009. "The Portuguese Disinflation Process: Analysis of Some Costs and Benefits," Transition Studies Review, Springer;Central Eastern European University Network (CEEUN), vol. 16(1), pages 157-173, May.
    19. Greene, David L. & Liu, Changzheng, 2015. "U.S. oil dependence 2014: Is energy independence in sight?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 126-137.
    20. Littlefield, Scott R., 2013. "Security, independence, and sustainability: Imprecise language and the manipulation of energy policy in the United States," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 779-788.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • D43 - Microeconomics - - Market Structure, Pricing, and Design - - - Oligopoly and Other Forms of Market Imperfection
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • G13 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing
    • G18 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Government Policy and Regulation
    • Q43 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy and the Macroeconomy

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ris:apltrx:0027. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Anatoly Peresetsky (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://appliedeconometrics.cemi.rssi.ru/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.