Modeling Dynamics of Oil Prices under Different Regimes of Oil Market Development
The problem of modeling oil prices over the last three decades is analyzed. Because of radical changes of regimes on the oil market necessity of studying two periods of time (the 1980’s to the end of 1990’s and the end of 1990’s to 2008) is discussed. Two aggregate models reflecting the situation over the two periods are built: an econometric model of dynamics of oil market indicators and aggregate monetarist model of the US economy including an oil price prediction bloc. The influence of priorities of monetary policy on dynamics of macroeconomic indicators and oil prices is studied. Necessity of a parallel study of influence of high oil prices on oil sensitive industries is emphasized
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