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Stabilisation of CO2 concentrations: Mitigation scenarios using the Petro model

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Abstract

How to stabilize the CO2 concentration in the atmosphere depends crucially on baseline assumptions of future economic growth, energy demand and supply technologies, etc. In this paper we investigate how different assumptions about the future affect the necessary global policy measures to reach specific concentration targets for CO2. This is done by constructing two contrasting baseline scenarios within an intertemporal model of fossil fuel markets. We find that the appropriate CO2 emission and concentration paths for a given concentration target are very dependent on the baseline. Moreover, the impact on oil wealth for OPEC and other oil producers of stabilizing CO2 concentrations depends significantly both on the baseline and on whether the target is reached through carbon taxes or autonomous technological change in carbon-free energy sources. Carbon leakage through changes in international fossil fuel prices is found to be negligible and possibly negative.
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Suggested Citation

  • Snorre Kverndokk & Lars Lindholt & Knut Einar Rosendal, 2000. "Stabilisation of CO2 concentrations: Mitigation scenarios using the Petro model," Discussion Papers 267, Statistics Norway, Research Department.
    • Handle: RePEc:ssb:dispap:267
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    Cited by:

    1. Rosendahl, Knut Einar, 2004. "Cost-effective environmental policy: implications of induced technological change," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 48(3), pages 1099-1121, November.
    2. Lars Lindholt, 2005. "Beyond Kyoto: backstop technologies and endogenous prices on CO2 permits and fossil fuels," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(17), pages 2019-2036.
    3. Snorre Kverndokk & Knut Rosendahl & Thomas Rutherford, 2004. "Climate Policies and Induced Technological Change: Which to Choose, the Carrot or the Stick?," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 27(1), pages 21-41, January.
    4. Chakravorty, Ujjayant & Magné, Bertrand & Moreaux, Michel, 2003. "From Coal to Clean Energy : Hotelling with a Limit on the Stock of Externalities," IDEI Working Papers 229, Institut d'Économie Industrielle (IDEI), Toulouse.
    5. Amundsen, Eirik Schrøder & Bergman, Lars, 2005. "International Redistribution of Resource Rents: An alternative perspective on the Kyoto process," Working Papers in Economics 08/05, University of Bergen, Department of Economics.
    6. Amundsen, Eirik S. & Bergman, Lars, 2005. "International Redistribution of Resource Rents: An alternative perspective on the Kyoto process," MPRA Paper 10624, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Kverndokk,S. & Rosendahl,E., 2000. "CO2 mitigation costs and ancillary benefits in the Nordic countries, the UK and Ireland : a survey," Memorandum 34/2000, Oslo University, Department of Economics.
    8. Tsuneyuki Morita & Nebos̆ja Nakićenović & John Robinson, 2000. "Overview of mitigation scenarios for global climate stabilization based on new IPCC emission scenarios (SRES)," Environmental Economics and Policy Studies, Springer;Society for Environmental Economics and Policy Studies - SEEPS, vol. 3(2), pages 65-88, June.
    9. Tsuneyuki Morita & Nebos̆ja Nakićenović & John Robinson, 2000. "Overview of mitigation scenarios for global climate stabilization based on new IPCC emission scenarios (SRES)," Environmental Economics and Policy Studies, Springer;Society for Environmental Economics and Policy Studies - SEEPS, vol. 3(2), pages 65-88, June.

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    JEL classification:

    • H23 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Externalities; Redistributive Effects; Environmental Taxes and Subsidies
    • Q25 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Renewable Resources and Conservation - - - Water
    • Q30 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Nonrenewable Resources and Conservation - - - General
    • Q42 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Alternative Energy Sources

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