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Overview of mitigation scenarios for global climate stabilization based on new IPCC emission scenarios (SRES)

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  • Tsuneyuki Morita
  • Nebos̆ja Nakićenović
  • John Robinson

Abstract

This paper provides an overview of new emission mitigation scenarios that lead to stabilization of atmospheric CO 2 concentrations, presented in this Special Issue. All of these scenarios use as their baselines the new IPCC scenarios published in the IPCC Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES), which quantify a wide range of future worlds. This means the new mitigation and stabilization scenarios are based on a range of future development paths that have fundamental implications for future emissions reduction strategies. Here, we refer to these new scenarios as “Post-SRES” mitigation scenarios. In addition to providing an overview of these new scenarios, this paper also assesses the implications that emerge from a range of alternative development baselines for technology and policy measures for reducing future emissions and stabilizing atmospheric CO 2 concentrations. Nine modeling teams have participated in this joint effort to quantify a wide range of mitigation and stabilization scenarios. The nine modeling approaches involve different methodologies, data, regional aggregations and other salient characteristics. This pluralism of approaches and alternative baselines serves to cover some of the uncertainties embedded across a range of different mitigation and stabilization strategies. At the same time, several common trends and characteristics can be observed across the set of Post-SRES scenarios. First, the different baseline “worlds” described in the SRES scenarios require different technology/policy measures to stabilize atmospheric CO 2 concentrations at the same level. Second, no one single measure will be sufficient for the timely development, adoption and diffusion of mitigation options to achieve stabilization. Third, the level of technology/policy measures in the beginning of the 21st century that would be needed to achieve stabilization would be significantly affected by the choice of development path over next one hundred years. And finally, several “robust policy options” across the different worlds are identified for achieving stabilizations. Copyright Springer Japan 2000

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  • Tsuneyuki Morita & Nebos̆ja Nakićenović & John Robinson, 2000. "Overview of mitigation scenarios for global climate stabilization based on new IPCC emission scenarios (SRES)," Environmental Economics and Policy Studies, Springer;Society for Environmental Economics and Policy Studies - SEEPS, vol. 3(2), pages 65-88, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:envpol:v:3:y:2000:i:2:p:65-88
    DOI: 10.1007/BF03354031
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Kejun Jiang & Tsuneyuki Morita & Toshihiko Masui & Yuzuru Matsuoka, 2000. "Global long-term greenhouse gas mitigation emission scenarios based on AIM," Environmental Economics and Policy Studies, Springer;Society for Environmental Economics and Policy Studies - SEEPS, vol. 3(2), pages 239-254, June.
    2. Keywan Riahi & R. Roehrl, 2000. "Energy technology strategies for carbon dioxide mitigation and sustainable development," Environmental Economics and Policy Studies, Springer;Society for Environmental Economics and Policy Studies - SEEPS, vol. 3(2), pages 89-123, June.
    3. Snorre Kverndokk & Lars Lindholt & Knut Einar Rosendahl, 2000. "Stabilization of CO2 concentrations: mitigation scenarios using the Petro model," Environmental Economics and Policy Studies, Springer;Society for Environmental Economics and Policy Studies - SEEPS, vol. 3(2), pages 195-224, June.
    4. Alexei Sankovski & Wiley Barbour & William Pepper, 2000. "Climate change mitigation in a regionalized world," Environmental Economics and Policy Studies, Springer;Society for Environmental Economics and Policy Studies - SEEPS, vol. 3(2), pages 225-237, June.
    5. Hugh Pitcher, 2000. "Mitigation options in a sustainable development world," Environmental Economics and Policy Studies, Springer;Society for Environmental Economics and Policy Studies - SEEPS, vol. 3(2), pages 173-193, June.
    6. Ashish Rana & Tsuneyuki Morita, 2000. "Scenarios for greenhouse gas emission mitigation: a review of modeling of strategies and policies in integrated assessment models," Environmental Economics and Policy Studies, Springer;Society for Environmental Economics and Policy Studies - SEEPS, vol. 3(2), pages 267-289, June.
    7. Johannes Bollen & Ton Manders & Hans Timmer, 2000. "The benefits and costs of waiting: early action versus delayed response in post-SRES stabilization scenarios," Environmental Economics and Policy Studies, Springer;Society for Environmental Economics and Policy Studies - SEEPS, vol. 3(2), pages 143-158, June.
    8. Shunsuke Mori, 2000. "Effects of carbon emission mitigation options under carbon concentration stabilization scenarios," Environmental Economics and Policy Studies, Springer;Society for Environmental Economics and Policy Studies - SEEPS, vol. 3(2), pages 125-142, June.
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    1. Luis Miguel Galindo & Paulina Reyes & Fernando Gonzalez, 2022. "Escenarios para la transicion energetica a una economia carbono neutral en America Latina y el Caribe: algunos hechos estilizados," Sobre México. Revista de Economía, Sobre México. Temas en economía, vol. 3(6), pages 5-39.
    2. van Vuuren, Detlef & Fengqi, Zhou & Vries, Bert de & Kejun, Jiang & Graveland, Cor & Yun, Li, 2003. "Energy and emission scenarios for China in the 21st century--exploration of baseline development and mitigation options," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 31(4), pages 369-387, March.
    3. Elmar Kriegler & Ioanna Mouratiadou & Gunnar Luderer & Nico Bauer & Robert J. Brecha & Katherine Calvin & Enrica Cian & Jae Edmonds & Kejun Jiang & Massimo Tavoni & Ottmar Edenhofer, 2016. "Will economic growth and fossil fuel scarcity help or hinder climate stabilization?," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 136(1), pages 7-22, May.

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