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Climate Protection!: A New Energy Policy?

Author

Listed:
  • Ottmar Edenhofer
  • Kai Lessmann
  • Nico Bauer
  • Hermann Held

Abstract

There is an emerging planetary consensus: Climate protection is necessary. Preventing global mean temperature from rising more than 2°C above pre-industrial levels is a common goal of climate protection. In essence, it requires a stabilization of carbon dioxide emissions within the next two decades in order to approach nearly zero emissions at the end of the century. Based on an integrated assessment model, we show that climate protection implies an increasing energy efficiency, a share of 20% of renewable energy at the mid of the century, and the use of carbon capturing and sequestration (CCS) on emissions from point sources. The costs of such a scenario are estimated to be about 1.0% of the gross world product, with a strong dependency on the leakage rate of CCS and the learning rates of the renewables. Es scheint sich ein planetarischer Konsens zu bilden: Klimaschutz ist notwendig. Es ist allgemein anerkannt, dass die globale Mitteltemperatur das vorindustrielle Niveau um nicht mehr als 2°C steigen sollte, wenn gefährliche Störungen des Klimasystems vermieden werden sollen. Dies setzt im Wesentlichen eine Stabilisierung der CO2-Emissionen in den nächsten beiden Dekaden voraus; zum Ende des Jahrhunderts sollten sich diese dann der Nulllinie nähern. Anhand eines Integrated-Assessment-Modells wird gezeigt, dass zur Erreichung dieses Klimaschutzzieles die Energieeffizienz mittelfristig erhöht werden muss, der Anteil erneuerbarer Energien bis zur Mitte des Jahrhunderts auf 20 % steigen sollte und die CO2-Emissionen an großen Punktquellen eingefangen und schließlich in geologischen Formationen gelagert werden müssen (sog. Carbon Capturing and Sequestration). Die Kosten der Umsetzung betragen dabei etwa 1 % des weltweiten Bruttosozialprodukts. Die Höhe der Vermeidungskosten hängt entscheidend von der Rate ab, mit der CO2 aus geologischen Formationen entweicht, sowie von der Lernrate der erneuerbaren Energieträger. Als hierzu notwendige Instrumente werden handelbare Emissionsrechte, grüne Energiezertifikate und "carbon sequestration bonds" diskutiert.

Suggested Citation

  • Ottmar Edenhofer & Kai Lessmann & Nico Bauer & Hermann Held, 2005. "Climate Protection!: A New Energy Policy?," Vierteljahrshefte zur Wirtschaftsforschung / Quarterly Journal of Economic Research, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research, vol. 74(2), pages 137-147.
  • Handle: RePEc:diw:diwvjh:74-2-2
    DOI: 10.3790/vjh.74.2.137
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    File URL: https://doi.org/10.3790/vjh.74.2.137
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