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Overreaction through Anchoring

Author

Listed:
  • Constantin Bürgi
  • Julio L. Ortiz

Abstract

We show that updates to macroeconomic expectations among professional forecasters exhibit an offsetting pattern where increases in current-quarter predictions lead to decreases in three quarter ahead predictions. We further document evidence of individual overreaction at the quarterly frequency and a lack of overreaction at the annual frequency. We explain these facts with a model of annual anchoring in which quarterly predictions must be consistent with annual predictions. We estimate our model to fit survey expectations and show that it provides a unified explanation for our empirical facts. Furthermore, our model yields frequency-specific estimates of information frictions which imply a larger role for inattention at the annual frequency.

Suggested Citation

  • Constantin Bürgi & Julio L. Ortiz, 2022. "Overreaction through Anchoring," CESifo Working Paper Series 10193, CESifo.
  • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_10193
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    File URL: https://www.cesifo.org/DocDL/cesifo1_wp10193.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Meyer-Gohde, Alexander & Tzaawa-Krenzler, Mary, 2023. "Sticky information and the Taylor principle," IMFS Working Paper Series 189, Goethe University Frankfurt, Institute for Monetary and Financial Stability (IMFS).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    information friction; consistency; SPF; inattention; overreaction;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • D83 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Search; Learning; Information and Knowledge; Communication; Belief; Unawareness
    • D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations
    • E17 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E27 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E47 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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