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A Small-Size Macroeconometric Model for Nigerian Economy

Author

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  • Emeka Nkoro
  • Aham Kelvin Uko

Abstract

This paper attempts to develop a small size macro-econometric model of Nigeria’s economy to examine the effects of monetary policy and crude oil price shock on selected macroeconomic variables through forecasting and simulations. The model comprises of 19 equations, out of which 12 are behavioral equations, four identities and three definitional equations. Ordinary Least Square technique is used to estimate the behavioral equations for the period 1981-2012. The estimated model parameters are used to perform simulation experiments to determine the model’s ability to track historical data and to assess the behavior of the selected macroeconomic variables in response to the changes (shocks) in selected exogenous variables. The results give insight in the future path of the main economic variables. JEL classification numbers: C20, C51, C52, C53, C63, E27, E37 Key Words: Macroeconometric Model, Nigerian Economy, Forecasting.

Suggested Citation

  • Emeka Nkoro & Aham Kelvin Uko, 2018. "A Small-Size Macroeconometric Model for Nigerian Economy," Journal of Statistical and Econometric Methods, SCIENPRESS Ltd, vol. 7(2), pages 1-4.
    • Handle: RePEc:spt:stecon:v:7:y:2018:i:2:f:7_2_4
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Soludo, C.C., 1995. "Macroeconomic Adjustment, Trade and growth: Policy Analysis Using a Macroeconomic Model of Nigeria," Papers 32, African Economic Research Consortium.
    2. Rankaduwa, Wimal & Rao, U. L. Gouranga & Ogwang, Tomson, 1995. "A forecasting model of the Sri Lankan economy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 12(4), pages 343-375, October.
    3. Frankel, Jeffrey A, 1979. "On the Mark: A Theory of Floating Exchange Rates Based on Real Interest Differentials," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 69(4), pages 610-622, September.
    4. Hervé, Karine & Pain, Nigel & Richardson, Pete & Sédillot, Franck & Beffy, Pierre-Olivier, 2011. "The OECD's new global model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 589-601.
    5. Laxton, Douglas & Rose, David & Tambakis, Demosthenes, 1999. "The U.S. Phillips curve: The case for asymmetry," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 23(9-10), pages 1459-1485, September.
    6. Dornbusch, Rudiger, 1976. "Expectations and Exchange Rate Dynamics," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 84(6), pages 1161-1176, December.
    7. Muhammad Arshad Khan & Musleh ud Din, 2011. "A Dynamic Macroeconometric Model of Pakistan’s Economy," PIDE-Working Papers 2011:69, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics.
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    Cited by:

    1. Alarudeen Aminu & Joshua Adeyemi Ogunjimi, 2019. "A Small Macroeconometric Model of Nigeria," Economy, Asian Online Journal Publishing Group, vol. 6(2), pages 41-55.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    macroeconometric model; nigerian economy; forecasting.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C20 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - General
    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • C63 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computational Techniques
    • E27 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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