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The OECD's new global model

Author

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  • Hervé, Karine
  • Pain, Nigel
  • Richardson, Pete
  • Sédillot, Franck
  • Beffy, Pierre-Olivier

Abstract

This paper provides a summary of the OECD's new global macroeconometric model, including an overview of model structure and a selection of simulations illustrating its main properties. Compared with its predecessors, the new model is more compact and regionally aggregated, but gives more weight to the focus of policy interests in global trade and financial linkages. The country model structures typically combine short-term Keynesian-type dynamics with a consistent long-run neo-classical supply-side. While retaining a conventional treatment of international trade and payments linkages, the model has a greater degree of stock-flow consistency, with explicit modelling of domestic and international assets, liabilities and associated income streams. Account is also taken of the influence of financial and housing market developments on asset valuation and domestic expenditures via house and equity prices, interest rates and exchange rates. As a result, the model gives more prominence to wealth and wealth effects in determining longer-term outcomes and the role of asset prices in the transmission of international shocks both to goods and financial markets.

Suggested Citation

  • Hervé, Karine & Pain, Nigel & Richardson, Pete & Sédillot, Franck & Beffy, Pierre-Olivier, 2011. "The OECD's new global model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(1-2), pages 589-601, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:28:y:2011:i:1-2:p:589-601
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    Cited by:

    1. Golinelli, Roberto & Parigi, Giuseppe, 2014. "Tracking world trade and GDP in real time," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 847-862.
    2. Fabio Bacchini & Cristina Brandimarte & Piero Crivelli & Roberta De Santis & Marco Fioramanti & Alessandro Girardi & Roberto Golinelli & Cecilia Jona-Lasinio & Massimo Mancini & Carmine Pappalardo & D, 2013. "Building the core of the Istat system of models for forecasting the Italian economy: MeMo-It," Rivista di statistica ufficiale, ISTAT - Italian National Institute of Statistics - (Rome, ITALY), vol. 15(1), pages 17-45.
    3. Bernardina Algieri, 2011. "Modelling export equations using an unobserved component model: the case of the Euro Area and its competitors," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 41(3), pages 593-637, December.
    4. Albonico, Alice & Calés, Ludovic & Cardani, Roberta & Croitorov, Olga & Ferroni, Filippo & Giovannini, Massimo & Hohberger, Stefan & Pataracchia, Beatrice & Pericoli, Filippo Maria & Raciborski, Rafal, 2019. "Comparing post-crisis dynamics across Euro Area countries with the Global Multi-country model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 242-273.
    5. Fioramanti, Marco & Vicarelli, Claudio, 2011. "The New Stability and Growth Pact: Primum non nocere," CEPS Papers 4370, Centre for European Policy Studies.
    6. Emeka Nkoro & Aham Kelvin Uko, 2018. "A Small-Size Macroeconometric Model for Nigerian Economy," Journal of Statistical and Econometric Methods, SCIENPRESS Ltd, vol. 7(2), pages 1-4.
    7. Amber Fatima & Abdul Waheed, 2014. "Economic uncertainty and growth performance: a macroeconomic modeling analysis for Pakistan," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 48(3), pages 1361-1387, May.
    8. Akanbi, Olusegun Ayodele, 2013. "Macroeconomic effects of fiscal policy changes: A case of South Africa," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 771-785.
    9. Agnieszka Domańska, 2013. "References to the Mundell-Fleming Model Found in New Models and the Evolution of Approaches in Analyzing the International Effects of Macroeconomic Policy," Ekonomia journal, Faculty of Economic Sciences, University of Warsaw, vol. 32.

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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • E17 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • F01 - International Economics - - General - - - Global Outlook
    • F47 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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