IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Login to save this article or follow this journal

Macroeconomic effects of fiscal policy changes: A case of South Africa

  • Akanbi, Olusegun Ayodele

This study develops comprehensive full-sector macro-econometric models for the South African economy with the aim of explaining and providing the macroeconomic effects of fiscal policy changes in the country. The models are applied to test the effectiveness of fiscal policy actions in an economic environment with existing structural supply constraints versus demand-side constraints and also to detect which components of the fiscal would be more effective in stabilising the economy. Based on the structure of the South African economy and the framework presented, the study concludes that the South African economy can be characterised as one which is embedded with structural supply constraints. Thus, a model which is suitable for policy analyses of the South African economy needs to capture the long-run supply-side characteristics of the economy. A price block is incorporated to specify the price adjustment between the supply-side sector and real aggregate demand sector. The models are estimated with time-series data from 1970 to 2011, capturing both the long-run and short-run dynamic properties of the economy. The results from the series of fiscal policy scenarios suggest that fiscal policy actions are more effective in an economic environment with limited or no supply constraints. Fiscal expansion or consolidation that comes more from government spending changes will be more effective in an economic environment where structural supply constraints are absent while tax revenue changes will be more effective in an economic environment where there exist major structural supply constraints.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0264999313003556
Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Economic Modelling.

Volume (Year): 35 (2013)
Issue (Month): C ()
Pages: 771-785

as
in new window

Handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:35:y:2013:i:c:p:771-785
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/30411

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. Christina D. Romer & David H. Romer, 2010. "The Macroeconomic Effects of Tax Changes: Estimates Based on a New Measure of Fiscal Shocks," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 100(3), pages 763-801, June.
  2. Llewellyn, G E J & Pesaran, M H, 1976. "The Determinants of United Kingdom Import Prices-A Note," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 86(342), pages 315-20, June.
  3. Karine Hervé & Nigel Pain & Pete Richardson & Franck Sédillot & Pierre-Olivier Beffy, 2010. "The OECD's New Global Model," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 768, OECD Publishing.
  4. B. Gibson & D.E.N. Seventer, 1997. "The Macroeconomic Impact of Restructuring Public Expenditure by Function in South Africa," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 65(2), pages 89-103, 06.
  5. Ali Abbas, S.M. & Bouhga-Hagbe, Jacques & Fatás, Antonio & Mauro, Paolo & Velloso, Ricardo C., 2010. "Fiscal Policy and the Current Account," CEPR Discussion Papers 7859, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  6. Paula De Masi, 1997. "IMF Estimates of Potential Output; Theory and Practice," IMF Working Papers 97/177, International Monetary Fund.
  7. Frankel, Jeffrey A, 1979. "On the Mark: A Theory of Floating Exchange Rates Based on Real Interest Differentials," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 69(4), pages 610-22, September.
  8. E Calitz, 2000. "Fiscal Implications of the Economic Globalisation of South Africa," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 68(4), pages 252-269, December.
  9. Akanbi, Olusegun A. & Du Toit, Charlotte B., 2011. "Macro-econometric modelling for the Nigerian economy: A growth–poverty gap analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 335-350.
  10. Frankel, Jeffrey & Smit, Ben & Sturzenegger, Federico, 2007. "South Africa: Macroeconomic Challenges after a Decade of Success," Working Paper Series rwp07-021, Harvard University, John F. Kennedy School of Government.
  11. Dornbusch, Rudiger, 1976. "Expectations and Exchange Rate Dynamics," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 84(6), pages 1161-76, December.
  12. Yehenew Endegnanew & Therese Turner-Jones & Charles Amo Yartey, 2012. "Fiscal Policy and the Current Account; Are Microstates Different?," IMF Working Papers 12/51, International Monetary Fund.
  13. Rudiger Dornbusch, 1980. "Exchange Rate Economics: Where Do We Stand?," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 11(1, Tenth ), pages 143-206.
  14. Engle, Robert F & Granger, Clive W J, 1987. "Co-integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 251-76, March.
  15. repec:taf:applec:44:y:2012:i:34:p:4439-4454 is not listed on IDEAS
  16. du Toit, Charlotte & Moolman, Elna, 2004. "A neoclassical investment function of the South African economy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 21(4), pages 647-660, July.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:35:y:2013:i:c:p:771-785. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Zhang, Lei)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.