IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/ecmode/v28y2011i1-2p335-350.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Macro-econometric modelling for the Nigerian economy: A growth-poverty gap analysis

Author

Listed:
  • Akanbi, Olusegun A.
  • Du Toit, Charlotte B.

Abstract

This study develops comprehensive full-sector macro-econometric models for the Nigerian economy with the aim of explaining and providing a long-term solution for the persistent growth-poverty divergence experienced by the country. The models are applied to test the hypothesis of existing structural supply-side constraints versus demand-side constraints impeding the economic growth and development of the country. A review of the historical performance of the Nigerian economy reveals significant socio-economic constraints as the predominant impediments to high and sticky levels of poverty in the economy. Thus, a model which is suitable for policy analyses of the Nigerian economy needs to capture the long-run supply-side characteristics of the economy. A price block is incorporated to specify the price adjustment between the production or supply-side sector and real aggregate demand sector. The institutional characteristics with associated policy behaviour are incorporated through a public and monetary sector, whereas the interaction with the rest of the world is represented by a foreign sector, with specific attention being given to the oil sector. The models are estimated with time-series data from 1970 to 2006 using the Engle-Granger two-step co-integration technique, capturing both the long-run and short-run dynamic properties of the economy. The full-sector models are subjected to a series of policy scenarios to evaluate various options for government to improve the productive capacity of the economy, thereby achieving sustained accelerated growth and a reduction in poverty in the Nigerian economy.

Suggested Citation

  • Akanbi, Olusegun A. & Du Toit, Charlotte B., 2011. "Macro-econometric modelling for the Nigerian economy: A growth-poverty gap analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(1-2), pages 335-350, January.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:28:y:2011:i:1-2:p:335-350
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0264-9993(10)00166-5
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Romer, Paul M, 1986. "Increasing Returns and Long-run Growth," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 94(5), pages 1002-1037, October.
    2. du Toit, Charlotte & Moolman, Elna, 2004. "A neoclassical investment function of the South African economy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 21(4), pages 647-660, July.
    3. Engle, Robert & Granger, Clive, 2015. "Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing," Applied Econometrics, Publishing House "SINERGIA PRESS", vol. 39(3), pages 106-135.
    4. King, Robert G & Rebelo, Sergio, 1990. "Public Policy and Economic Growth: Developing Neoclassical Implications," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 98(5), pages 126-150, October.
    5. Khan, Safdar Ullah Khan, 2005. "Macro Determinants of Total Factor Productivity in Pakistan," MPRA Paper 8693, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 10 Sep 2005.
    6. Robert M. Solow, 1956. "A Contribution to the Theory of Economic Growth," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 70(1), pages 65-94.
    7. James Tobin, 1955. "A Dynamic Aggregative Model," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 63, pages 103-103.
    8. Sadia Bader, 2006. "Determining Import Intensity of Exports for Pakistan," SBP Research Bulletin, State Bank of Pakistan, Research Department, vol. 2, pages 363-381..
    9. Layard, Richard & Nickell, Stephen, 1986. "Unemployment in Britain," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 53(210(S)), pages 121-169, Supplemen.
    10. R. F. Harrod, 1953. "Full Capacity vs. Full Employment Growth: Comment," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 67(4), pages 553-559.
    11. Dornbusch, Rudiger, 1976. "Expectations and Exchange Rate Dynamics," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 84(6), pages 1161-1176, December.
    12. N. Lind, 1993. "A compound index of national development," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 28(3), pages 267-284, March.
    13. Barro, Robert J, 1990. "Government Spending in a Simple Model of Endogenous Growth," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 98(5), pages 103-126, October.
    14. Azariadis, Costas & Stachurski, John, 2005. "Poverty Traps," Handbook of Economic Growth,in: Philippe Aghion & Steven Durlauf (ed.), Handbook of Economic Growth, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 5 Elsevier.
    15. Harold Pilvin, 1953. "Full Capacity vs. Full Employment Growth," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 67(4), pages 545-552.
    16. Bayraktar, Nihal & Fofack, Hippolyte, 2007. "Specification of investment functions in Sub-Saharan Africa," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4171, The World Bank.
    17. Christian H. Beddies, 1999. "Investment, Capital Accumulation, and Growth; Some Evidence from The Gambia 1964–98," IMF Working Papers 99/117, International Monetary Fund.
    18. Frankel, Jeffrey A, 1979. "On the Mark: A Theory of Floating Exchange Rates Based on Real Interest Differentials," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 69(4), pages 610-622, September.
    19. David Cass, 1965. "Optimum Growth in an Aggregative Model of Capital Accumulation," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 32(3), pages 233-240.
    20. Kaufmann, Daniel & Kraay, Aart & Zoido-Lobaton, Pablo, 1999. "Aggregating governance indicators," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2195, The World Bank.
    21. Rudiger Dornbusch, 1980. "Exchange Rate Economics: Where Do We Stand?," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 11(1, Tenth ), pages 143-206.
    22. Bernhard G. Gunter & Marc J. Cohen & Hans Lofgren, 2005. "Analysing Macro-Poverty Linkages: An Overview," Development Policy Review, Overseas Development Institute, vol. 23(3), pages 243-265, May.
    23. Safdar Ullah Khan, 2006. "Macro Determeinants of Total Factor Productivity in Pakistan," SBP Working Paper Series 10, State Bank of Pakistan, Research Department.
    24. Lucas, Robert Jr., 1988. "On the mechanics of economic development," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 3-42, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Tafirenyika Sunde & Olusegun A. Akanbi, 2016. "Sources of unemployment in Namibia: an application of the structural VAR approach," International Journal of Sustainable Economy, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 8(2), pages 125-143.
    2. Akanbi, Olusegun Ayodele, 2013. "Macroeconomic effects of fiscal policy changes: A case of South Africa," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 771-785.
    3. Sunde, Tafirenyika & Akanbi, Olusegun Ayodele, 2015. "Sources of unemployment in Namibia: an application of the structural VAR approach," MPRA Paper 86578, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Macro-econometric modelling Economic growth Poverty Nigeria;

    JEL classification:

    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E20 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • P46 - Economic Systems - - Other Economic Systems - - - Consumer Economics; Health; Education and Training; Welfare, Income, Wealth, and Poverty

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:28:y:2011:i:1-2:p:335-350. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Dana Niculescu). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/30411 .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.