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On the Measurement of the Predictive Success of Learning Theories in Repeated Games

Author

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  • Atanasios Mitropoulos

    (Otto-von-Guericke-University Magdeburg)

Abstract

The growing literature on learning in games has produced various results on the predictive success of learning theories. These results, however, were based on various methods of comparison. The present paper uses experimental data on a set of four games in order to check on the robustness of rankings among learning rules across measures. We characterise measures along three dimensions: (i) the scoring rule, (ii) the method of comparison, and (iii) the definition of observations and apply all thus defined measures to 12 learning rules. The results show that rankings are indeed sensitive to the measure used. Furthermore, we point at deficiencies of certain measures that have been applied in the past and suggest the use of simulated data when learning rules are supposed to predict realisations of random variables.

Suggested Citation

  • Atanasios Mitropoulos, 2001. "On the Measurement of the Predictive Success of Learning Theories in Repeated Games," Experimental 0110001, EconWPA.
  • Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpex:0110001 Note: Type of Document - Acrobat PDF; prepared on IBM PC - MS-Word; to print on HP A4 size; pages: 30; figures: included
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    File URL: http://econwpa.repec.org/eps/exp/papers/0110/0110001.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Chen, Yan & Khoroshilov, Yuri, 2003. "Learning under limited information," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 44(1), pages 1-25, July.
    2. Erev, Ido & Roth, Alvin E, 1998. "Predicting How People Play Games: Reinforcement Learning in Experimental Games with Unique, Mixed Strategy Equilibria," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 88(4), pages 848-881, September.
    3. Atanasios Mitropoulos, 2001. "Little Information, Efficiency, and Learning - An Experimental Study," Game Theory and Information 0110002, EconWPA.
    4. Daniel Friedman, 1983. "Effective Scoring Rules for Probabilistic Forecasts," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 29(4), pages 447-454, April.
    5. Pascual, Lorenzo & Romo, Juan & Ruiz, Esther, 2001. "Effects of parameter estimation on prediction densities: a bootstrap approach," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 83-103.
    6. Borgers, Tilman & Sarin, Rajiv, 1997. "Learning Through Reinforcement and Replicator Dynamics," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 77(1), pages 1-14, November.
    7. repec:kap:expeco:v:1:y:1998:i:1:p:43-62 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Selten, Reinhard & Stoecker, Rolf, 1986. "End behavior in sequences of finite Prisoner's Dilemma supergames A learning theory approach," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 7(1), pages 47-70, March.
    9. Erev, Ido & Bereby-Meyer, Yoella & Roth, Alvin E., 1999. "The effect of adding a constant to all payoffs: experimental investigation, and implications for reinforcement learning models," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 111-128, May.
    10. Reinhard Selten, 1998. "Axiomatic Characterization of the Quadratic Scoring Rule," Experimental Economics, Springer;Economic Science Association, vol. 1(1), pages 43-61, June.
    11. John G. Cross, 1973. "A Stochastic Learning Model of Economic Behavior," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 87(2), pages 239-266.
    12. Atanasios Mitropoulos, 2001. "Learning Under Little Information: An Experiment on Mutual Fate Control," Game Theory and Information 0110003, EconWPA.
    13. Nick Feltovich, 2000. "Reinforcement-Based vs. Belief-Based Learning Models in Experimental Asymmetric-Information," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 68(3), pages 605-642, May.
    14. Selten, Reinhard & Joachim Buchta, 1994. "Experimental Sealed Bid First Price Auctions with Directly Observed Bid Functions," Discussion Paper Serie B 270, University of Bonn, Germany.
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    Cited by:

    1. Spiliopoulos, Leonidas, 2008. "Do repeated game players detect patterns in opponents? Revisiting the Nyarko & Schotter belief elicitation experiment," MPRA Paper 6666, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Spiliopoulos, Leonidas, 2008. "Humans versus computer algorithms in repeated mixed strategy games," MPRA Paper 6672, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    learning; experimental games; predictive success; forecasts;

    JEL classification:

    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • C72 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Game Theory and Bargaining Theory - - - Noncooperative Games
    • C91 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Design of Experiments - - - Laboratory, Individual Behavior
    • D83 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Search; Learning; Information and Knowledge; Communication; Belief; Unawareness

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