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On the Measurement of the Predictive Success of Learning Theories in Repeated Games

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  • Atanasios Mitropoulos

    (Otto-von-Guericke-University Magdeburg)

Abstract

The growing literature on learning in games has produced various results on the predictive success of learning theories. These results, however, were based on various methods of comparison. The present paper uses experimental data on a set of four games in order to check on the robustness of rankings among learning rules across measures. We characterise measures along three dimensions: (i) the scoring rule, (ii) the method of comparison, and (iii) the definition of observations and apply all thus defined measures to 12 learning rules. The results show that rankings are indeed sensitive to the measure used. Furthermore, we point at deficiencies of certain measures that have been applied in the past and suggest the use of simulated data when learning rules are supposed to predict realisations of random variables.

Suggested Citation

  • Atanasios Mitropoulos, 2001. "On the Measurement of the Predictive Success of Learning Theories in Repeated Games," Experimental 0110001, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpex:0110001
    Note: Type of Document - Acrobat PDF; prepared on IBM PC - MS-Word; to print on HP A4 size; pages: 30; figures: included
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Spiliopoulos, Leonidas, 2008. "Humans versus computer algorithms in repeated mixed strategy games," MPRA Paper 6672, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Spiliopoulos, Leonidas, 2008. "Do repeated game players detect patterns in opponents? Revisiting the Nyarko & Schotter belief elicitation experiment," MPRA Paper 6666, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • C72 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Game Theory and Bargaining Theory - - - Noncooperative Games
    • C91 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Design of Experiments - - - Laboratory, Individual Behavior
    • D83 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Search; Learning; Information and Knowledge; Communication; Belief; Unawareness

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