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Developing the concept of Sustainable Peace using Econometrics and scenarios granting Sustainable Peace in Colombia by year 2019

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  • Gomez-Sorzano, Gustavo

Abstract

This paper belongs to my research program on violence and terrorism started in 1993, as a consequence of the growing concern regarding the increase in Colombian violence, and especially for its escalation during the 1990’s. After 14 years of research, particularly after developing a model of cyclical terrorist murder in Colombia 1950-2004, forecasts 2005-2019 (Gómez-Sorzano 2005, http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/134/01/MPRA_paper_134.pdf), the econometrics of violence, terrorism, and scenarios for peace in Colombia from 1950 to 2019 (Gómez-Sorzano 2006, http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/539/01/MPRA_paper_539.pdf), and Scenarios for Sustainable Peace in Colombia by year 2019 (Gómez-Sorzano 2006B, http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/135/01/MPRA_paper_135.pdf) , I claim in this paper that I have formally developed the concept of Sustainable Peace using advanced econometrics. The concept of Sustainable Peace is thus presented to the international academic community, and is based in the construction of a structural econometric model for National murder, and a model for cyclical terrorist murder that have been simultaneously used for designing Scenarios granting Sustainable Peace in Colombia by year 2019.

Suggested Citation

  • Gomez-Sorzano, Gustavo, 2007. "Developing the concept of Sustainable Peace using Econometrics and scenarios granting Sustainable Peace in Colombia by year 2019," MPRA Paper 5655, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 07 Nov 2007.
  • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:5655
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    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/5655/1/MPRA_paper_5655.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. John Y. Campbell & Pierre Perron, 1991. "Pitfalls and Opportunities: What Macroeconomists Should Know About Unit Roots," NBER Chapters,in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1991, Volume 6, pages 141-220 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Cuddington, John T. & Urzua, Carlos M., 1989. "Trends and cycles in Colombia's real GDP and fiscal deficit," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(2), pages 325-343, April.
    3. Levitt Steven & Mauricio Rubio, 2000. "Understanding crime in Colombia and what can be done about It," WORKING PAPERS SERIES. DOCUMENTOS DE TRABAJO 003735, FEDESARROLLO.
    4. Dinar, Ariel & Keck, Andrew, 1997. "Private irrigation investment in Colombia: effects of violence, macroeconomic policy, and environmental conditions," Agricultural Economics, Blackwell, vol. 16(1), pages 1-15, March.
    5. Nicholas Sambanis, 2002. "A Review of Recent Advances and Future Directions in the Quantitative Literature on Civil War," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(3), pages 215-243.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    More about this item

    Keywords

    sustainable peace; scenarios for sustainable peace; scenarios granting sustainable peace; a model of cyclical terrorist murder in Colombia 1950-2004. Forecasts 2005-2019; democratic security policy; using the Beveridge and Nelson decomposition of economic time series for pointing out the occurrence of terrorist attacks; the econometrics of violence; terrorism and scenarios for peace in Colombia from 1950 to 2019; scenarios for sustainable peace in Colombia by year 2019;

    JEL classification:

    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • D63 - Microeconomics - - Welfare Economics - - - Equity, Justice, Inequality, and Other Normative Criteria and Measurement
    • C82 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology; Computer Programs - - - Methodology for Collecting, Estimating, and Organizing Macroeconomic Data; Data Access
    • D9 - Microeconomics - - Micro-Based Behavioral Economics
    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
    • C87 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology; Computer Programs - - - Econometric Software
    • H44 - Public Economics - - Publicly Provided Goods - - - Publicly Provided Goods: Mixed Markets
    • D7 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • D74 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Conflict; Conflict Resolution; Alliances; Revolutions
    • O54 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Latin America; Caribbean
    • N46 - Economic History - - Government, War, Law, International Relations, and Regulation - - - Latin America; Caribbean
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • H56 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - National Security and War
    • K42 - Law and Economics - - Legal Procedure, the Legal System, and Illegal Behavior - - - Illegal Behavior and the Enforcement of Law
    • C2 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables

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