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Developing the concept of Sustainable Peace using Econometrics and scenarios granting Sustainable Peace in Colombia by year 2019

  • Gomez-Sorzano, Gustavo

This paper belongs to my research program on violence and terrorism started in 1993, as a consequence of the growing concern regarding the increase in Colombian violence, and especially for its escalation during the 1990’s. After 14 years of research, particularly after developing a model of cyclical terrorist murder in Colombia 1950-2004, forecasts 2005-2019 (Gómez-Sorzano 2005,, the econometrics of violence, terrorism, and scenarios for peace in Colombia from 1950 to 2019 (Gómez-Sorzano 2006,, and Scenarios for Sustainable Peace in Colombia by year 2019 (Gómez-Sorzano 2006B, , I claim in this paper that I have formally developed the concept of Sustainable Peace using advanced econometrics. The concept of Sustainable Peace is thus presented to the international academic community, and is based in the construction of a structural econometric model for National murder, and a model for cyclical terrorist murder that have been simultaneously used for designing Scenarios granting Sustainable Peace in Colombia by year 2019.

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Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 5655.

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Date of creation: 06 Apr 2007
Date of revision: 07 Nov 2007
Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:5655
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  1. Cuddington, John T. & Urzua, Carlos M., 1989. "Trends and cycles in Colombia's real GDP and fiscal deficit," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(2), pages 325-343, April.
  2. Campbell, John & Perron, Pierre, 1991. "Pitfalls and Opportunities: What Macroeconomists Should Know about Unit Roots," Scholarly Articles 3374863, Harvard University Department of Economics.
  3. Dinar, Ariel & Keck, Andrew, 1997. "Private irrigation investment in Colombia: effects of violence, macroeconomic policy, and environmental conditions," Agricultural Economics, Blackwell, vol. 16(1), pages 1-15, March.
  4. Nicholas Sambanis, 2002. "A Review of Recent Advances and Future Directions in the Quantitative Literature on Civil War," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(3), pages 215-243.
  5. Levitt Steven & Mauricio Rubio, 2000. "Understanding crime in Colombia and what can be done about It," WORKING PAPERS SERIES. DOCUMENTOS DE TRABAJO 003735, FEDESARROLLO.
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