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A Duration-Dependent Regime Switching Model for an Open Emerging Economy

Author

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  • Ozun, Alper

    () (Bradford University, School of Management, UK, Bank of Turkey and Treasury Department, Istanbul, Turkey)

  • Turk, Mehmet

    () (Bank of Turkey, Treasury Department, Istanbul)

Abstract

We employ duration-dependent Markov-switching vector auto-regression (DDMSVAR) methodology to construct an economic cycle model for an emerging economy. By modifying the software codes for DDMSVAR methodology written by Pelagatti (2003), we show how to estimate the economic cycles in an emerging economy where macroeconomic shocks are suddenly observed and their levels are deep. The monthly values of net international reserves, domestic debt, inflation and industrial production in the Turkish economy from January 1989 to July 2007 are used for constructing the empirical analysis. Empirical evidence shows that DDMSVAR model can be successfully used in an emerging economy to estimate the cycles using basic macroeconomic indicators.

Suggested Citation

  • Ozun, Alper & Turk, Mehmet, 2009. "A Duration-Dependent Regime Switching Model for an Open Emerging Economy," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(4), pages 66-81, December.
  • Handle: RePEc:rjr:romjef:v::y:2009:i:4:p:66-81
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Vitor Castro, 2015. "The Portuguese business cycle: chronology and duration dependence," Empirical Economics, Springer, pages 325-342.
    2. Vítor Castro, 2011. "The Portuguese Business Cycle: Chronology and Duration Dependence," NIPE Working Papers 11/2011, NIPE - Universidade do Minho.
    3. Vitor Castro, 2013. "The Portuguese stock market cycle: Chronology and duration dependence," OECD Journal: Journal of Business Cycle Measurement and Analysis, OECD Publishing, Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys, pages 1-23.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    duration dependent regime switching model; economic cycles; Markov models; Turkish economy;

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • O11 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods

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