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A Hybrid Data Cloning Maximum Likelihood Estimator for Stochastic Volatility Models

  • Laurini Márcio Poletti

    ()

    (Department of Economics, FEA-RP USP and associated researcher at CNPq, Ribeirão Preto, São Paulo, Brazil)

Abstract: In this article, we analyze a maximum likelihood estimator using Data Cloning for Stochastic Volatility models. This estimator is constructed using a hybrid methodology based on Integrated Nested Laplace Approximations to calculate analytically the auxiliary Bayesian estimators with great accuracy and computational efficiency, without requiring the use of simulation methods such as Markov Chain Monte Carlo. We analyze the performance of this estimator compared to methods based on Monte Carlo simulations (Simulated Maximum Likelihood, MCMC Maximum Likelihood) and approximate maximum likelihood estimators using Laplace Approximations. The results indicate that this data cloning methodology achieves superior results over methods based on MCMC, comparable to results obtained by the Simulated Maximum Likelihood estimator. The methodology is extended to models with leverage effects, continuous time formulations, multifactor and multivariate stochastic volatility.

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Article provided by De Gruyter in its journal Journal of Time Series Econometrics.

Volume (Year): 5 (2013)
Issue (Month): 2 (May)
Pages: 193-229

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Handle: RePEc:bpj:jtsmet:v:5:y:2013:i:2:p:193-229:n:4
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  1. Koopman, Siem Jan & Mallee, Max I. P. & Van der Wel, Michel, 2010. "Analyzing the Term Structure of Interest Rates Using the Dynamic Nelson–Siegel Model With Time-Varying Parameters," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 28(3), pages 329-343.
  2. Rolf Poulsen & Klaus Reiner Schenk-Hoppe & Christian-Oliver Ewald, 2009. "Risk minimization in stochastic volatility models: model risk and empirical performance," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 9(6), pages 693-704.
  3. Heston, Steven L, 1993. "A Closed-Form Solution for Options with Stochastic Volatility with Applications to Bond and Currency Options," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 6(2), pages 327-43.
  4. Mikhail Chernov & A. Ronald Gallant & Eric Ghysels & George Tauchen, 2002. "Alternative Models for Stock Price Dynamics," CIRANO Working Papers 2002s-58, CIRANO.
  5. Bates, David S, 1996. "Jumps and Stochastic Volatility: Exchange Rate Processes Implicit in Deutsche Mark Options," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 9(1), pages 69-107.
  6. Victor Chernozhukov & Han Hong, 2004. "Likelihood Estimation and Inference in a Class of Nonregular Econometric Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 72(5), pages 1445-1480, 09.
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