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Estimating stochastic volatility models using integrated nested Laplace approximations

Author

Listed:
  • Sara Martino
  • Kjersti Aas
  • Ola Lindqvist
  • Linda Neef
  • Håvard Rue

Abstract

Volatility in financial time series is mainly analysed through two classes of models; the generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (GARCH) models and the stochastic volatility (SV) ones. GARCH models are straightforward to estimate using maximum-likelihood techniques, while SV models require more complex inferential and computational tools, such as Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC). Hence, although provided with a series of theoretical advantages, SV models are in practice much less popular than GARCH ones. In this paper, we solve the problem of inference for some SV models by applying a new inferential tool, integrated nested Laplace approximations (INLAs). INLA substitutes MCMC simulations with accurate deterministic approximations, making a full Bayesian analysis of many kinds of SV models extremely fast and accurate. Our hope is that the use of INLA will help SV models to become more appealing to the financial industry, where, due to their complexity, they are rarely used in practice.

Suggested Citation

  • Sara Martino & Kjersti Aas & Ola Lindqvist & Linda Neef & Håvard Rue, 2011. "Estimating stochastic volatility models using integrated nested Laplace approximations," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(7), pages 487-503.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:eurjfi:v:17:y:2011:i:7:p:487-503
    DOI: 10.1080/1351847X.2010.495475
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Zea Bermudez, Patrícia de & Marín Díazaraque, Juan Miguel & Rue, Havard & Lopes Moreira Da Veiga, María Helena, 2021. "Integrated nested Laplace approximations for threshold stochastic volatility models," DES - Working Papers. Statistics and Econometrics. WS 31804, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Estadística.
    2. Gressani, Oswaldo & Lambert, Philippe, 2016. "Fast Bayesian inference in semi-parametric P-spline cure survival models using Laplace approximations," LIDAM Discussion Papers ISBA 2016041, Université catholique de Louvain, Institute of Statistics, Biostatistics and Actuarial Sciences (ISBA).
    3. Martins, Thiago G. & Simpson, Daniel & Lindgren, Finn & Rue, Håvard, 2013. "Bayesian computing with INLA: New features," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 68-83.
    4. Van Niekerk, Janet & Krainski, Elias & Rustand, Denis & Rue, Håvard, 2023. "A new avenue for Bayesian inference with INLA," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 181(C).
    5. Laurini Márcio Poletti, 2013. "A Hybrid Data Cloning Maximum Likelihood Estimator for Stochastic Volatility Models," Journal of Time Series Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 5(2), pages 193-229, May.
    6. João Pedro Coli de Souza Monteneri Nacinben & Márcio Laurini, 2024. "Multivariate Stochastic Volatility Modeling via Integrated Nested Laplace Approximations: A Multifactor Extension," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 12(1), pages 1-28, February.
    7. Skaug, Hans J. & Yu, Jun, 2014. "A flexible and automated likelihood based framework for inference in stochastic volatility models," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 642-654.
    8. Gressani, Oswaldo & Lambert, Philippe, 2018. "Fast Bayesian inference using Laplace approximations in a flexible promotion time cure model based on P-splines," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 124(C), pages 151-167.
    9. Ola L{o}vsletten & Martin Rypdal, 2012. "A multifractal approach towards inference in finance," Papers 1202.5376, arXiv.org.

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