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Diffusion of Telecommunication Services in Turkey


  • Mehmet KARACUKA

    (Ege University, Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences, Department of Economics)

  • A.Nazif CATIK

    (Ege University, Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences, Department of Economics)


This paper evaluates the forecasting ability of alternative product growth models for telecommunication services in Turkey. The variable exponential growth model better explains the diffusion process of fixed line services, suggesting that S-shaped models are not able to model the period of the maturity stage. However, the Gompertz model is superior in explaining the diffusion process of mobile line services. Results suggest that forecasting ability of growth curves depends on the differences in characteristics and the competitive structures of the markets.

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  • Mehmet KARACUKA & A.Nazif CATIK, 2012. "Diffusion of Telecommunication Services in Turkey," Ege Academic Review, Ege University Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences, vol. 12(4), pages 497-510.
  • Handle: RePEc:ege:journl:v:12:y:2012:i:4:p:497-510

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Michalakelis, Christos & Varoutas, Dimitris & Sphicopoulos, Thomas, 0. "Diffusion models of mobile telephony in Greece," Telecommunications Policy, Elsevier, vol. 32(3-4), pages 234-245, April.
    2. Rouvinen, Petri, 2006. "Diffusion of digital mobile telephony: Are developing countries different?," Telecommunications Policy, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 46-63, February.
    3. Christophe Van den Bulte & Gary L. Lilien, 1997. "Bias and Systematic Change in the Parameter Estimates of Macro-Level Diffusion Models," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 16(4), pages 338-353.
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    More about this item


    Diffusion of Telecommunication Services in Turkey.;

    JEL classification:

    • C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • O33 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Technological Change: Choices and Consequences; Diffusion Processes


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