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Diffusion models of mobile telephony in Greece

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  • Michalakelis, Christos
  • Varoutas, Dimitris
  • Sphicopoulos, Thomas

Abstract

This paper examines and presents the diffusion rate of mobile telephony subscriptions in Greece. Following the evaluation of the most widely used aggregate technology diffusion models (such as the Bass model, the Fisher-Pry model, the Gompertz models and some representatives of the logistic variants), it becomes evident that these S-shaped models are suitable enough for accurate fitting and forecasting the diffusion of mobile telephony. The analysis of the diffusion process in Greece provides some interesting aspects of mobile penetration such as the correlation between the diffusion speed and the number of competing operators as well as other socioeconomic and regulatory aspects. As a result of the estimation of 2G's diffusion process parameters, the potential market size and the analysis of the techniques for the appropriate model selection, this analysis can be considered as a means of providing an insight into the estimation of the diffusion shapes of the forthcoming generations of mobile telephony and telecommunication products and services in Greece and elsewhere.

Suggested Citation

  • Michalakelis, Christos & Varoutas, Dimitris & Sphicopoulos, Thomas, 0. "Diffusion models of mobile telephony in Greece," Telecommunications Policy, Elsevier, vol. 32(3-4), pages 234-245, April.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:telpol:v:32:y::i:3-4:p:234-245
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Dewenter, Ralf & Kruse, Jörn, 2011. "Calling party pays or receiving party pays? The diffusion of mobile telephony with endogenous regulation," Information Economics and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 107-117, March.
    2. Christos Michalakelis & Georgia Dede & Dimitris Varoutas & Thomas Sphicopoulos, 2010. "Estimating diffusion and price elasticity with application to telecommunications," Netnomics, Springer, vol. 11(3), pages 221-242, October.
    3. Lechman, Ewa & Kaur, Harleen, 2016. "Social development and ICT adoption. Developing world perspective," MPRA Paper 69354, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Annafari, Mohammad Tsani, 2013. "Multiple subscriptions of mobile telephony: Explaining the diffusion pattern using sampling data," Telecommunications Policy, Elsevier, pages 930-939.
    5. Tselekounis, Markos & Varoutas, Dimitris & Martakos, Drakoulis, 2014. "A CDS approach to induce facilities-based competition over NGA networks," Telecommunications Policy, Elsevier, pages 311-331.
    6. Luis Marentes & Tilman Wolf & Anna Nagurney & Yezid Donoso & Harold Castro, 2014. "Overcoming economic challenges of internet operators in low income regions through a delay tolerant architecture with mechanic backhauls," Netnomics, Springer, vol. 15(3), pages 183-213, November.
    7. Tseng, Fang-Mei & Wang, Shenq-Yuan & Hsieh, Chih-Hung & Guo, Aifang, 2014. "An integrated model for analyzing the development of the 4G telecommunications market in Taiwan," Telecommunications Policy, Elsevier, pages 14-31.
    8. Michalakelis, C. & Sphicopoulos, T., 2012. "A population dependent diffusion model with a stochastic extension," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 587-606.
    9. Mehmet KARACUKA & A.Nazif CATIK, 2012. "Diffusion of Telecommunication Services in Turkey," Ege Academic Review, Ege University Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences, vol. 12(4), pages 497-510.
    10. Lin, Chiun-Sin, 2013. "Forecasting and analyzing the competitive diffusion of mobile cellular broadband and fixed broadband in Taiwan with limited historical data," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 207-213.
    11. Athanasios Papadimitriou & Antonios Kargas, 2012. "The relationship between organizational culture and market orientation in the Greek telecommunication companies," Netnomics, Springer, vol. 13(1), pages 1-23, April.

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