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Situation politico-économique et résultats des élections législatives françaises

Author

Listed:
  • Antoine Auberger
  • Éric Dubois

Abstract

The aim of this article is to build and estimate a model that explains and forecasts the result of the French legislative elections by department. This model, that constitutes the first attempt for such geographical level, emphasises the role of the economic and political factors in the explanation of the legislative vote. The model seems to be very accurate in forecasting the elections of the past. Furthermore, its behavior for the 2002 elections was very satisfactory. This model is therefore a reliable alternative to the vote intentions polls as an electoral forecasting instrument. Classification JEL : C23, C53, D72

Suggested Citation

  • Antoine Auberger & Éric Dubois, 2003. "Situation politico-économique et résultats des élections législatives françaises," Revue économique, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 54(3), pages 551-560.
    • Handle: RePEc:cai:recosp:reco_543_0551
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    Cited by:

    1. Hamza Bennani & Pauline Gandré & Benjamin Monnery, 2020. "Les déterminants locaux de la participation numérique au grand débat national : une analyse économétrique," Revue économique, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 71(4), pages 715-737.
    2. Éric Dubois, 2007. "Les déterminants économiques du vote 1976-2006 : trente ans de fonctions de vote en France," Revue d'économie politique, Dalloz, vol. 117(2), pages 243-270.
    3. Antoine Auberger, 2021. "Vote, popularity, unemployment and French presidential elections [Vote, popularité, chômage et élections présidentielles françaises]," Working Papers hal-03480855, HAL.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior

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