IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/hal/journl/hal-00800662.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Les déterminants économiques du vote - 1976-2006 : trente ans de fonctions de vote en France

Author

Listed:
  • Eric Dubois

    () (CERAPS - Centre d'Etudes et de Recherches Administratives, Politiques et Sociales - Université de Lille - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

Abstract

The aim of this article is to present a very detailed survey on politico-economic models of voting built in the French case. Since 1976 and the first study ever published on this topic, more than seventy papers have been written. The 30th anniversary is the occasion to explore this growing literature. After an introduction that highlights the main features of the scientific production and recalls the theoretical grounds of vote-functions, the first section studies the type of elections and the aggregation level in French voting models. Issues linked to the construction of the dependent variable like left-right cleavage, extreme right status, and relevant round are tackled in the second section. The third one shows the explanatory variables used. They are gathered in three groups: economic variables, institutional variables, and political variables. The conclusion regarding each of them is indicated. The section ends on the role of the campaign and on the French voter's degree of memory. A paragraph is also devoted to seats-functions that translate vote into seats. This kind of functions is very useful in majority systems like the French one because to be majority in vote does not necessary mean to be majority in seats. Section four deals with econometric problems. After having examined the way that authors treat usual diagnoses (autocorrelation, heteroskedasticity...), two remarks are drawn concerning the use of the intercept term in pooled-data models and the estimation of systems formed by a vote-equation and a seat-equation. Section five presents the forecasts produced by the models. Their accuracy is assessed by comparing the forecasted value to the actual value for some elections and by examining the forecasts stemming from vote intentions polls. This evaluation shows several brilliant successes on the recent period. The conclusion sketches some trails for future researches. Among them, we can cite the building of a finer model for the legislative elections (by constituencies for example) and the development of a model for cantonal elections. Moreover, seats-functions have to be improved and more attention has to be paid to econometrics. Taking spatial interactions into account may also constitute an appealing way to increase our knowledge of voting behaviour.

Suggested Citation

  • Eric Dubois, 2007. "Les déterminants économiques du vote - 1976-2006 : trente ans de fonctions de vote en France," Post-Print hal-00800662, HAL.
  • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-00800662
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00800662
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00800662/document
    Download Restriction: no

    Other versions of this item:

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-00800662. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (CCSD). General contact details of provider: https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/ .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.