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Forecasting the implications of foreign exchange reserve accumulation with an agent-based model

Author

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  • Ramis Khabibullin

    (Bank of Russia, Russian Federation)

  • Alexey Ponomarenko

    (Bank of Russia, Russian Federation)

  • Sergei Seleznev

    (Bank of Russia, Russian Federation)

Abstract

We develop a stock-flow-consistent agent-based model that comprises a realistic mechanism of money creation and parametrize it to fit actual data. The model is used to make out-of-sample projections of broad money and credit developments under the commencement/termination of foreign reserve accumulation by the Bank of Russia. We use direct forecasts from the agent-based model as well as the two-step approach, which implies the use of artificial data to pre-train the Bayesian vector autoregression model. We conclude that the suggested approach is competitive in forecasting and yields promising results.

Suggested Citation

  • Ramis Khabibullin & Alexey Ponomarenko & Sergei Seleznev, 2018. "Forecasting the implications of foreign exchange reserve accumulation with an agent-based model," Bank of Russia Working Paper Series wps37, Bank of Russia.
    • Handle: RePEc:bkr:wpaper:wps37
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    Cited by:

    1. Alexey Ponomarenko, 2019. "Foreign exchange reserves and money supply," Bank of Russia Working Paper Series note19, Bank of Russia.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Money supply; foreign exchange reserves; forecasting; agent-based model; Russia.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • C63 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computational Techniques
    • E51 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Money Supply; Credit; Money Multipliers
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages

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