IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/bkr/wpaper/wps37.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Forecasting the implications of foreign exchange reserve accumulation with an agent-based model

Author

Listed:
  • Ramis Khabibullin

    () (Bank of Russia, Russian Federation)

  • Alexey Ponomarenko

    () (Bank of Russia, Russian Federation)

  • Sergei Seleznev

    () (Bank of Russia, Russian Federation)

Abstract

We develop a stock-flow-consistent agent-based model that comprises a realistic mechanism of money creation and parametrize it to fit actual data. The model is used to make out-of-sample projections of broad money and credit developments under the commencement/termination of foreign reserve accumulation by the Bank of Russia. We use direct forecasts from the agent-based model as well as the two-step approach, which implies the use of artificial data to pre-train the Bayesian vector autoregression model. We conclude that the suggested approach is competitive in forecasting and yields promising results.

Suggested Citation

  • Ramis Khabibullin & Alexey Ponomarenko & Sergei Seleznev, 2018. "Forecasting the implications of foreign exchange reserve accumulation with an agent-based model," Bank of Russia Working Paper Series wps37, Bank of Russia.
  • Handle: RePEc:bkr:wpaper:wps37
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://cbr.ru/Content/Document/File/51397/wp37_e.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Popoyan, Lilit & Napoletano, Mauro & Roventini, Andrea, 2017. "Taming macroeconomic instability: Monetary and macro-prudential policy interactions in an agent-based model," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 134(C), pages 117-140.
    2. Carpenter, Seth & Demiralp, Selva, 2012. "Money, reserves, and the transmission of monetary policy: Does the money multiplier exist?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 59-75.
    3. Jaromir Benes & Andrew Berg & Rafael Portillo & David Vavra, 2015. "Modeling Sterilized Interventions and Balance Sheet Effects of Monetary Policy in a New-Keynesian Framework," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 26(1), pages 81-108, February.
    4. Butt, Nick & Churm, Rohan & McMahon, Michael & Morotz, Arpad & Schanz, Jochen, 2014. "QE and the bank lending channel in the United Kingdom," Bank of England working papers 511, Bank of England.
    5. repec:elg:eechap:16612_20 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Kuzin, Vladimir & Schobert, Franziska, 2015. "Why does bank credit not drive money in Germany (any more)?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 41-51.
    7. Ashraf, Quamrul & Gershman, Boris & Howitt, Peter, 2017. "Banks, market organization, and macroeconomic performance: An agent-based computational analysis," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 135(C), pages 143-180.
    8. Allen N. Berger & Christa H. S. Bouwman, 2009. "Bank Liquidity Creation," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 22(9), pages 3779-3837, September.
    9. Lavoie, Marc, 1999. "The Credit-Led Supply of Deposits and the Demand for Money: Kaldor's Reflux Mechanism as Previously Endorsed by Joan Robinson," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 23(1), pages 103-113, January.
    10. Bayoumi, Tamim & Saborowski, Christian, 2014. "Accounting for reserves," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 1-29.
    11. Krug, Sebastian, 2015. "The interaction between monetary and macroprudential policy: Should central banks "lean against the wind" to foster macrofinancial stability?," Economics Working Papers 2015-08, Christian-Albrechts-University of Kiel, Department of Economics.
    12. Patty Duijm & Peter Wierts, 2016. "The Effects of Liquidity Regulation on Bank Assets and Liabilities," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 12(2), pages 385-411, June.
    13. Blaise Gadanecz & Aaron Mehrotra & Madhusudan S Mohanty, 2014. "Foreign exchange intervention and the banking system balance sheet in emerging market economies," BIS Working Papers 445, Bank for International Settlements.
    14. Domenico Giannone & Michele Lenza & Giorgio E. Primiceri, 2015. "Prior Selection for Vector Autoregressions," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 97(2), pages 436-451, May.
    15. Piti Disyatat, 2011. "The Bank Lending Channel Revisited," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 43(4), pages 711-734, June.
    16. David Cook & James Yetman, 2012. "Expanding central bank balance sheets in emerging Asia: a compendium of risk and some evidence," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Are central bank balance sheets in Asia too large?, volume 66, pages 30-75, Bank for International Settlements.
    17. Giorgio Fagiolo & Andrea Roventini, 2017. "Macroeconomic Policy in DSGE and Agent-Based Models Redux: New Developments and Challenges Ahead," Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation, Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation, vol. 20(1), pages 1-1.
    18. repec:oup:oxford:v:34:y:2018:i:1-2:p:219-251. is not listed on IDEAS
    19. A G Haldane & A E Turrell, 2018. "An interdisciplinary model for macroeconomics," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 34(1-2), pages 219-251.
    20. Joshua Aizenman & Reuven Glick, 2009. "Sterilization, Monetary Policy, and Global Financial Integration," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 17(4), pages 777-801, September.
    21. repec:eee:asieco:v:62:y:2019:i:c:p:1-16 is not listed on IDEAS
    22. repec:mes:emfitr:v:51:y:2015:i:6:p:1261-1275 is not listed on IDEAS
    23. repec:eme:jfeppp:jfep-05-2016-0033 is not listed on IDEAS
    24. Cavoli, Tony & Rajan, Ramkishen S., 2015. "Capital inflows and the interest premium problem: The effects of monetary sterilisation in selected Asian economies," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 1-18.
    25. Jakab, Zoltan & Kumhof, Michael, 2015. "Banks are not intermediaries of loanable funds – and why this matters," Bank of England working papers 529, Bank of England.
    26. Luca, Alina & Petrova, Iva, 2008. "What drives credit dollarization in transition economies?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(5), pages 858-869, May.
    27. McLeay, Michael & Radia, Amar & Thomas, Ryland, 2014. "Money creation in the modern economy," Bank of England Quarterly Bulletin, Bank of England, vol. 54(1), pages 14-27.
    28. Borio, Claudio & Zhu, Haibin, 2012. "Capital regulation, risk-taking and monetary policy: A missing link in the transmission mechanism?," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 8(4), pages 236-251.
    29. Caiani, Alessandro & Godin, Antoine & Caverzasi, Eugenio & Gallegati, Mauro & Kinsella, Stephen & Stiglitz, Joseph E., 2016. "Agent based-stock flow consistent macroeconomics: Towards a benchmark model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 375-408.
    30. repec:zbw:ifweej:20187 is not listed on IDEAS
    31. Halvorsen, Jørn I. & Jacobsen, Dag Henning, 2016. "The bank-lending channel empirically revisited," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 95-105.
    32. Jorge A Chan-Lau, 2017. "ABBA: An Agent-Based Model of the Banking System," IMF Working Papers 17/136, International Monetary Fund.
    33. Andrew Filardo & James Yetman, 2012. "The expansion of central bank balance sheets in emerging Asia: what are the risks?," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, June.
    34. Joseph E. Gagnon, 2013. "The Elephant Hiding in the Room: Currency Intervention and Trade Imbalances," Working Paper Series WP13-2, Peterson Institute for International Economics.
    35. Claudio Borio & Anna Zabai, 2018. "Unconventional monetary policies: a re-appraisal," Chapters, in: Research Handbook on Central Banking, chapter 20, pages 398-444, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    36. Bindseil, Ulrich, 2004. "The operational target of monetary policy and the rise and fall of reserve position doctrine," Working Paper Series 372, European Central Bank.
    37. Andrew Filardo & James Yetman, 2012. "Key facts on central bank balance sheets in Asia and the Pacific," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Are central bank balance sheets in Asia too large?, volume 66, pages 10-29, Bank for International Settlements.
    38. Alice Ouyang & Ramkishen Rajan, 2011. "Reserve accumulation and monetary sterilization in Singapore and Taiwan," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 43(16), pages 2015-2031.
    39. Joseph Gagnon, 2012. "Global imbalances and foreign asset expansion by developing-economy central banks," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Are central bank balance sheets in Asia too large?, volume 66, pages 168-185, Bank for International Settlements.
    40. Alexey Ponomarenko, 2017. "A note on money creation in emerging market economies," Journal of Financial Economic Policy, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 9(1), pages 70-85, April.
    41. Andrew Filardo & Stephen Grenville, 2012. "Central bank balance sheets and foreign exchange rate regimes: understanding the nexus in Asia," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Are central bank balance sheets in Asia too large?, volume 66, pages 76-110, Bank for International Settlements.
    42. Marco Del Negro & Frank Schorfheide, 2004. "Priors from General Equilibrium Models for VARS," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 45(2), pages 643-673, May.
    43. DeYoung, Robert & Jang, Karen Y., 2016. "Do banks actively manage their liquidity?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 143-161.
    44. Olivier Blanchard & Jonathan D. Ostry & Atish R. Ghosh & Marcos Chamon, 2016. "Capital Flows: Expansionary or Contractionary?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 106(5), pages 565-569, May.
    45. Ponomarenko, Alexey, 2019. "Do sterilized foreign exchange interventions create money?," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 1-16.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Alexey Ponomarenko, 2019. "Foreign exchange reserves and money supply," Bank of Russia Working Paper Series note19, Bank of Russia.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Money supply; foreign exchange reserves; forecasting; agent-based model; Russia.;

    JEL classification:

    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • C63 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computational Techniques
    • E51 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Money Supply; Credit; Money Multipliers
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bkr:wpaper:wps37. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (BoR Research). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/cbrgvru.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.