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The Insecure Future of the World Economic Growth

Author

Listed:
  • Ron W. NIELSEN

    (Griffith University, Australia.)

Abstract

Growth rate of the world Growth Domestic Product (GDP) is analysed to determine possible pathways of the future economic growth. The analysis is based on using the latest data of the World Bank and it reveals that the growth rate between 1960 and 2014 was following a trajectory approaching asymptotically a constant value. The most likely prediction is that the world economic growth will continue to increase exponentially and that it will become unsustainable possibly even during the current century. A more optimistic but less realistic prediction is based on the assumption that the growth rate will start to decrease linearly. In this case, the world economic growth is predicted to reach a maximum, if the growth rate is going to decrease linearly with time, or to follow a logistic trajectory, if the growth rate is going to decrease linearly with the size of the world GDP.

Suggested Citation

  • Ron W. NIELSEN, 2015. "The Insecure Future of the World Economic Growth," Journal of Economic and Social Thought, KSP Journals, vol. 2(4), pages 242-255, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:ksp:journ3:v:2:y:2015:i:4:p:242-255
    as

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    File URL: http://www.kspjournals.org/index.php/JEST/article/view/526
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ron W. Nielsen, 2015. "Mathematical Analysis of the Historical Economic Growth," Papers 1509.06612, arXiv.org, revised May 2016.
    2. Ron W Nielsen, 2015. "Mathematics of Predicting Growth," Papers 1510.06337, arXiv.org.
    3. Ron W. NIELSEN, 2015. "Mathematics of Predicting Growth," Turkish Economic Review, KSP Journals, vol. 2(4), pages 222-238, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Ron W. NIELSEN, 2016. "Unified Growth Theory Contradicted by the Mathematical Analysis of the Historical Growth of Human Population," Journal of Economics and Political Economy, KSP Journals, vol. 3(2), pages 242-263, June.
    2. Ron W. NIELSEN, 2016. "The Unresolved Mystery of the Great Divergence is Solved," Journal of Economic and Social Thought, KSP Journals, vol. 3(2), pages 196-219, June.
    3. Ron W. NIELSEN, 2016. "Scientifically Unacceptable Established Knowledge in Demography and in Economic Research," Journal of Economics Library, KSP Journals, vol. 3(3), pages 429-457, September.
    4. Constantin ANGHELACHE & Alexandru MANOLE & Mădălina-Gabriela ANGHEL, 2017. "Macroeconomic models used in structural analysis of GDP," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania - AGER, vol. 0(1(610), S), pages 197-206, Spring.
    5. Ron W. NIELSEN, 2017. "Explaining the Origin of the Anthropocene and Predicting Its Future," Journal of Economic and Social Thought, KSP Journals, vol. 4(4), pages 354-386, December.
    6. Constantin ANGHELACHE & Marian SFETCU & Mugurel POPOVICI & Zoica DINCA (NICOLA), 2016. "General aspects regarding the concept of economic growth," Romanian Statistical Review Supplement, Romanian Statistical Review, vol. 64(10), pages 67-70, October.
    7. Ron W. Nielsen, 2017. "Application of Differential Equations in Projecting Growth Trajectories," Papers 1705.06557, arXiv.org, revised Jun 2017.
    8. Ron W. NIELSEN, 2016. "Mathematical Analysis of Historical Income Per Capita Distributions," Turkish Economic Review, KSP Journals, vol. 3(2), pages 300-319, June.
    9. Ron W. NIELSEN, 2016. "Mathematical Analysis of Income Per Capita in the United Kingdom," Turkish Economic Review, KSP Journals, vol. 3(4), pages 551-561, December.
    10. Constantin ANGHELACHE & Alexandru MANOLE & Mădălina-Gabriela ANGHEL, 2017. "Macroeconomic models used in structural analysis of GDP," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania - AGER, vol. 0(1(610), S), pages 197-206, Spring.
    11. Marian SFETCU & Daniel DUMITRESCU & Marius POPOVICI & Emilia STANCIU, 2017. "The impact of inflation’s evolution on consumption," Romanian Statistical Review Supplement, Romanian Statistical Review, vol. 65(1), pages 56-79, January.

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    1. Ron W Nielsen, 2015. "The Insecure Future of the World Economic Growth," Papers 1510.07928, arXiv.org, revised Nov 2015.
    2. Ron W. NIELSEN, 2016. "Mathematical Analysis of Income Per Capita in the United Kingdom," Turkish Economic Review, KSP Journals, vol. 3(4), pages 551-561, December.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Economic growth; world economic growth; Gross Domestic Product; predicting future growth; exponential growth.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C01 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - General - - - Econometrics
    • C20 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - General
    • C50 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - General
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • C60 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - General
    • C65 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Miscellaneous Mathematical Tools
    • C80 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology; Computer Programs - - - General

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