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The unresolved mystery of the great divergence is solved

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  • Ron W Nielsen

Abstract

The so-called great divergence in the income per capita is described in the Unified Growth Theory as the mind-boggling and unresolved mystery about the growth process. This mystery has now been solved: the great divergence never happened. It was created by the manipulation of data. Economic growth in various regions is at different levels of development but it follows similar, non-divergent trajectories. Unified Growth Theory is shown yet again to be incorrect and scientifically unacceptable. It promotes incorrect and even potentially dangerous concepts. The distorted presentation of data supporting the concept of the great divergence shows that economic growth is now developing along moderately-increasing trajectories but mathematical analysis of the same data and even their undistorted presentation shows that these trajectories are now increasing approximately vertically with time. So, while the distorted presentation of data used in the Unified Growth Theory suggests generally sustainable and secure economic growth, the undistorted presentation of data demonstrates that the growth is unsustainable and insecure. The concept of takeoffs from stagnation to the sustained-growth regime promoted in the Unified Growth Theory is also dangerously misleading because it suggests a sustainable and prosperous future while the mathematical analysis of data shows that the current economic growth is insecure and unsustainable.

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  • Ron W Nielsen, 2016. "The unresolved mystery of the great divergence is solved," Papers 1603.08344, arXiv.org, revised May 2016.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:1603.08344
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Oded Galor & Omer Moav, 2000. "Natural Selection and the Origin of economic Growth," Working Papers 2000-18, Brown University, Department of Economics.
    2. Ron W. Nielsen, 2015. "Mathematical Analysis of the Historical Economic Growth," Papers 1509.06612, arXiv.org, revised May 2016.
    3. Oded Galor & Omer Moav, 2002. "Natural Selection and the Origin of Economic Growth," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 117(4), pages 1133-1191.
    4. Oded Galor, 2011. "Unified Growth Theory and Comparative Development," Rivista di Politica Economica, SIPI Spa, issue 2, pages 9-21, April-Jun.
    5. Ron W Nielsen, 2016. "The Postulate of the Three Regimes of Economic Growth Contradicted by Data," Papers 1602.05718, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2016.
    6. Ron W Nielsen, 2016. "Unified Growth Theory Contradicted by the Absence of Takeoffs in the Gross Domestic Product," Papers 1601.04686, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2016.
    7. Ron W. NIELSEN, 2016. "Unified Growth Theory Contradicted by the Absence of Takeoffs in the Gross Domestic Product," Turkish Economic Review, KSP Journals, vol. 3(1), pages 16-27, March.
    8. Ron W. NIELSEN, 2016. "The Postulate of the Three Regimes of Economic Growth Contradicted by Data," Journal of Economic and Social Thought, KSP Journals, vol. 3(1), pages 1-34, March.
    9. Ron W Nielsen, 2015. "Unified Growth Theory Contradicted by the Economic Growth in Europe," Papers 1512.08067, arXiv.org, revised Feb 2016.
    10. Ron W. NIELSEN, 2016. "Unified Growth Theory Contradicted by the Mathematical Analysis of the Historical Growth of Human Population," Journal of Economics and Political Economy, KSP Journals, vol. 3(2), pages 242-263, June.
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    Cited by:

    1. Ron W. NIELSEN, 2017. "Puzzling Features of the Historical Income per Capita Distributions Explained," Journal of Economics Bibliography, KSP Journals, vol. 4(1), pages 10-24, March.
    2. Ron W. NIELSEN, 2016. "Mathematical Analysis of Income Per Capita in the United Kingdom," Turkish Economic Review, KSP Journals, vol. 3(4), pages 551-561, December.
    3. Ron W. NIELSEN, 2017. "Demographic Catastrophes Did Not Shape the Growth of Human Population or the Economic Growth," Journal of Economic and Social Thought, KSP Journals, vol. 4(2), pages 121-141, June.
    4. Ron W. NIELSEN, 2016. "Scientifically Unacceptable Established Knowledge in Demography and in Economic Research," Journal of Economics Library, KSP Journals, vol. 3(3), pages 429-457, September.
    5. Ron W. NIELSEN, 2017. "Explaining the Origin of the Anthropocene and Predicting Its Future," Journal of Economic and Social Thought, KSP Journals, vol. 4(4), pages 354-386, December.
    6. Ron W. NIELSEN, 2017. "Changing the direction of the economic and demographic research," Journal of Economics Library, KSP Journals, vol. 4(3), pages 288-309, September.
    7. Ron W. NIELSEN, 2017. "Population and Economic Growth in Australia: 8,000 BC - AD 1700 Extended to 60,000 BC," Journal of Economic and Social Thought, KSP Journals, vol. 4(1), pages 41-54, March.

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