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The Postulate of the Three Regimes of Economic Growth Contradicted by Data

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  • Ron W Nielsen

Abstract

Economic growth in Western Europe, Eastern Europe, Asia, countries of the former USSR, Africa and Latin America were analysed. It is demonstrated that the fundamental postulate of the Unified Growth Theory about the existence of the three regimes of growth (Malthusian regime, post-Malthusian regime and sustained-growth regime) is contradicted by data. These regimes did not exist. In particular, there was no escape from the Malthusian trap because there was no trap. Economic growth in all these regions was not stagnant but hyperbolic. Unified Growth Theory is fundamentally incorrect. However, this theory is also dangerously misleading because it claims a transition from the endless epoch of stagnation to the new era of sustained economic growth, the interpretation creating the sense of security and a promise of prosperity. The data show that the opposite is true. Economic growth in the past was sustained and secure. Now, it is supported by the increasing ecological deficit. The long-term sustained and secure economic growth has yet to be created. It did not happen automatically, as suggested incorrectly by the Unified Growth Theory.

Suggested Citation

  • Ron W Nielsen, 2016. "The Postulate of the Three Regimes of Economic Growth Contradicted by Data," Papers 1602.05718, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2016.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:1602.05718
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    1. John Komlos & Marc Artzrouni, "undated". ""Population Growth through History and the Escape from the Malthusian Trap: A Homeostatic Simulation Model," Articles by John Komlos 34, Department of Economics, University of Munich.
    2. Oded Galor & Omer Moav, 2002. "Natural Selection and the Origin of Economic Growth," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 117(4), pages 1133-1191.
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    4. Artzrouni, Marc & Komlos, John, 1985. "Population Growth Through History and the Escape from the Malthusian Trap," Munich Reprints in Economics 3428, University of Munich, Department of Economics.
    5. Oded Galor, 2011. "Unified Growth Theory," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, number 9477, December.
    6. John Komlos, "undated". "Thinking about the Industrial Revolution," Articles by John Komlos 30, Department of Economics, University of Munich.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Ron W. NIELSEN, 2017. "Puzzling Features of the Historical Income per Capita Distributions Explained," Journal of Economics Bibliography, KSP Journals, vol. 4(1), pages 10-24, March.
    2. Ron W. NIELSEN, 2016. "Interpretations of Hyperbolic Growth," Journal of Economics and Political Economy, EconSciences Journals, vol. 3(4), pages 594-626, December.
    3. Ron W. NIELSEN, 2016. "Mathematical Analysis of Income Per Capita in the United Kingdom," Turkish Economic Review, KSP Journals, vol. 3(4), pages 551-561, December.
    4. Ron W Nielsen, 2016. "The unresolved mystery of the great divergence is solved," Papers 1603.08344, arXiv.org, revised May 2016.
    5. Ron W. NIELSEN, 2016. "The Unresolved Mystery of the Great Divergence is Solved," Journal of Economic and Social Thought, KSP Journals, vol. 3(2), pages 196-219, June.
    6. Ron W. Nielsen, 2018. "Evidence-based Unified Growth Theory Vol.2," EconSciences Library Books, EconSciences Library Books, edition 1, number 978-605-2132-91-3.
    7. Ron W. NIELSEN, 2016. "Interpretations of Hyperbolic Growth," Journal of Economics and Political Economy, KSP Journals, vol. 3(4), pages 594-626, December.
    8. Ron W. NIELSEN, 2016. "Unified Growth Theory Contradicted by the Mathematical Analysis of the Historical Growth of Human Population," Journal of Economics and Political Economy, EconSciences Journals, vol. 3(2), pages 242-263, June.
    9. Ron W. NIELSEN, 2016. "Scientifically Unacceptable Established Knowledge in Demography and in Economic Research," Journal of Economics Library, KSP Journals, vol. 3(3), pages 429-457, September.
    10. Ron W. NIELSEN, 2017. "Explaining the Origin of the Anthropocene and Predicting Its Future," Journal of Economic and Social Thought, KSP Journals, vol. 4(4), pages 354-386, December.
    11. Ron W. NIELSEN, 2017. "Changing the direction of the economic and demographic research," Journal of Economics Library, KSP Journals, vol. 4(3), pages 288-309, September.
    12. Ron W. Nielsen, 2018. "Evidence Based Unified Growth Theory Vol.1," EconSciences Library Books, EconSciences Library Books, edition 1, number 978-605-2132-52-4.
    13. Ron W. NIELSEN, 2016. "Mathematical Analysis of Historical Income Per Capita Distributions," Turkish Economic Review, KSP Journals, vol. 3(2), pages 300-319, June.
    14. Ron W. NIELSEN, 2017. "Population and Economic Growth in Australia: 8,000 BC - AD 1700 Extended to 60,000 BC," Journal of Economic and Social Thought, KSP Journals, vol. 4(1), pages 41-54, March.
    15. Ron W. NIELSEN, 2016. "Unified Growth Theory Contradicted by the Mathematical Analysis of the Historical Growth of Human Population," Journal of Economics and Political Economy, KSP Journals, vol. 3(2), pages 242-263, June.

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