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Growth of the World Population in the Past 12,000 Years and Its Link to the Economic Growth

Author

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  • Ron W. NIELSEN

    (Griffith University, Australia.)

Abstract

Data describing the growth of the world population in the past 12,000 yearsare analysed. It is shown that,if unchecked, population does not increase exponentially but hyperbolically. This analysis reveals three approximately-determined episodes of hyperbolic growth: 10,000-500 BC, AD 500-1200 and AD 1400-1950, representing a total of about 89% of the past 12,000 years. It also reveals three demographic transitions: 500 BC-AD 500, AD 1200-1400 and AD 1950-present, representing the remaining 11% of the past 12,000 years. The first two transitions were between sustained hyperbolic trajectories. The current transition is to an unknown trajectory. There was never any form of dramatic transition from stagnation to growth, described often as a takeoff, because there was no stagnation in the growth of the world population. Correct understanding of the historical growth of human population is essential in the correct interpretation of the historical growth of income per capita.

Suggested Citation

  • Ron W. NIELSEN, 2016. "Growth of the World Population in the Past 12,000 Years and Its Link to the Economic Growth," Journal of Economics Bibliography, KSP Journals, vol. 3(1), pages 1-12, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:ksp:journ6:v:3:y:2016:i:1:p:1-12
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ron W. Nielsen, 2015. "Mathematical Analysis of the Historical Economic Growth," Papers 1509.06612, arXiv.org, revised May 2016.
    2. Ron W. NIELSEN, 2016. "Mathematical Analysis of the Historical Economic Growth with a Search for Takeoffs from Stagnation to Growth," Journal of Economics Library, KSP Journals, vol. 3(1), pages 1-23, March.
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    Cited by:

    1. Ron W. NIELSEN, 2016. "Unified Growth Theory Contradicted by the Absence of Takeoffs in the Gross Domestic Product," Turkish Economic Review, KSP Journals, vol. 3(1), pages 16-27, March.
    2. Ron W. Nielsen, 2017. "Changing the Direction of the Economic and Demographic Research," Papers 1708.08673, arXiv.org.
    3. Ron W. Nielsen, 2017. "Application of Differential Equations in Projecting Growth Trajectories," Papers 1705.06557, arXiv.org, revised Jun 2017.
    4. Ron W. NIELSEN, 2016. "Mathematical Analysis of the Historical Economic Growth with a Search for Takeoffs from Stagnation to Growth," Journal of Economics Library, KSP Journals, vol. 3(1), pages 1-23, March.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Growth of human population; Economic growth; Growth of income per capita; Stagnation; Takeoffs; Hyperbolic growth; Demographic transitions.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • A12 - General Economics and Teaching - - General Economics - - - Relation of Economics to Other Disciplines
    • B22 - Schools of Economic Thought and Methodology - - History of Economic Thought since 1925 - - - Macroeconomics
    • B25 - Schools of Economic Thought and Methodology - - History of Economic Thought since 1925 - - - Historical; Institutional; Evolutionary; Austrian; Stockholm School
    • F01 - International Economics - - General - - - Global Outlook
    • N00 - Economic History - - General - - - General
    • Y80 - Miscellaneous Categories - - Related Disciplines - - - Related Disciplines

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