IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/urn/urnste/v6y2015i1p89-101.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Forecasts for activity rate on labour market in Romania using econometric models

Author

Listed:
  • Mihaela Simionescu

    (Institute for Economic Forecasting of the Romanian Academy)

Abstract

The main objective of this study is related to the econometric modelling of the activity rate in Romania and the construction of prognoses. A dynamic panel data model with quarterly data, covering the period from Q1:1996-Q4:2013, was constructed. The values were registered for the 4 Romanian macroregions. Predictions for 2011-2013 at national level were obtained by aggregation. In parallel, an autoregressive model of order 1 and a vectorial-autoregressive mdel were built for forecasting. In the first period, 99.98% of the activity rate variation is due to this variable, while in the second period, the average number of retired people influences the activity rate in proportion of 4.129%. The influence of number of retired people grows in time, arriving to 9.501% in the 10th period. All the accuracy indicators showed that the naive forecasts were more accurate than the other prediction based on VAR and dynamic panel model on the horizon 2011-2013.

Suggested Citation

  • Mihaela Simionescu, 2015. "Forecasts for activity rate on labour market in Romania using econometric models," HOLISTICA Journal of Business and Public Administration, Association Holistic Research Academic (HoRA), vol. 6(1), pages 89-101, January-A.
    • Handle: RePEc:urn:urnste:v:6:y:2015:i:1:p:89-101
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://holisticajournal.ro/details?pid=85
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    More about this item

    Keywords

    activity rate; labour market; dynamic panel; VAR model; random walk;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:urn:urnste:v:6:y:2015:i:1:p:89-101. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Claudiu Baicu (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/fasnsro.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.