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A DSGE-VAR model for forecasting key South African macroeconomic variables

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  • Gupta, Rangan
  • Steinbach, Rudi

Abstract

The paper develops a Small Open Economy New Keynesian DSGE-VAR (SOENKDSGE-VAR) model of the South African economy, characterised by incomplete pass-through of exchange rate changes, external habit formation, partial indexation of domestic prices and wages to past inflation, and staggered price and wage setting. The model is estimated using Bayesian techniques on data from the period 1980Q1 to 2003Q2, and then used to forecast output, inflation and nominal short-term interest rate for one-to eight-quarters-ahead over an out-of sample horizon of 2003Q3 to 2010Q4. When the forecast performance of the SOENKDSGE-VAR model is compared with an independently estimated DSGE model, the classical VAR and six alternative BVAR models, we find that, barring the BVAR model based on the SSVS prior on both VAR coefficients and the error covariance, the SOENKDSGE-VAR model is found to perform competitively, if not, better than all the other VAR models.

Suggested Citation

  • Gupta, Rangan & Steinbach, Rudi, 2013. "A DSGE-VAR model for forecasting key South African macroeconomic variables," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 19-33.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:33:y:2013:i:c:p:19-33
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2013.03.012
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    Cited by:

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    2. Rangan Gupta & Patrick T. Kanda & Mampho P. Modise & Alessia Paccagnini, 2015. "DSGE model-based forecasting of modelled and nonmodelled inflation variables in South Africa," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(3), pages 207-221, January.
    3. Niu, Linlin & Xu, Xiu & Chen, Ying, 2017. "An adaptive approach to forecasting three key macroeconomic variables for transitional China," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 201-213.
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    5. Georgiadis, Georgios & Jančoková, Martina, 2020. "Financial globalisation, monetary policy spillovers and macro-modelling: Tales from 1001 shocks," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 121(C).
    6. Federico Inchausti-Sintes & Ubay Pérez-Granja, 2022. "Monetary policy and exchange rate regime in tourist islands," Tourism Economics, , vol. 28(2), pages 325-348, March.
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    8. Paetz, Michael & Gupta, Rangan, 2016. "Stock price dynamics and the business cycle in an estimated DSGE model for South Africa," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 166-182.
    9. Rangan Gupta & Hylton Hollander & Rudi Steinbach, 2020. "Forecasting output growth using a DSGE-based decomposition of the South African yield curve," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 58(1), pages 351-378, January.
    10. Annari De Waal & Rene頖an Eyden & Rangan Gupta, 2015. "Do we need a global VAR model to forecast inflation and output in South Africa?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(25), pages 2649-2670, May.
    11. Buffie, Edward F. & Zanna, Luis-Felipe, 2018. "Limited Asset Market Participation And Determinacy In The Open Economy," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 22(8), pages 1937-1977, December.
    12. Buffie, Edward F. & Airaudo, M. & Zanna, Felipe, 2018. "Inflation targeting and exchange rate management in less developed countries," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 159-184.
    13. Byron Botha & Rulof Burger & Kevin Kotzé & Neil Rankin & Daan Steenkamp, 2023. "Big data forecasting of South African inflation," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 65(1), pages 149-188, July.
    14. Babecký, Jan & Franta, Michal & Ryšánek, Jakub, 2018. "Fiscal policy within the DSGE-VAR framework," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 23-37.
    15. Paola Mariell Brens Ortega, 2020. "An Econometric Analysis of a Calibrated Macroeconomic Model for the Dominican Republic: A Closer Look into Monetary Policy," Documentos de Trabajo 18253, The Latin American and Caribbean Economic Association (LACEA).
    16. Balcilar, Mehmet & Gupta, Rangan & Kotzé, Kevin, 2015. "Forecasting macroeconomic data for an emerging market with a nonlinear DSGE model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 215-228.
    17. Patrick T. Kanda & Mehmet Balcilar & Pejman Bahramian & Rangan Gupta, 2016. "Forecasting South African inflation using non-linearmodels: a weighted loss-based evaluation," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(26), pages 2412-2427, June.
    18. repec:ipg:wpaper:2014-562 is not listed on IDEAS
    19. Rangan Gupta & Patrick T. kanda & Mampho P. Modise & Alessia Paccagnini, 2013. "DSGE Model-Based Forecasting of Modeled and Non-Modeled Inflation Variables in South Africa," Working Papers 201374, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    20. Jetter, Michael & Mahmood, Rafat & Parmeter, Christopher F. & Ramírez-Hassan, Andrés, 2022. "Post-Cold War civil conflict and the role of history and religion: A stochastic search variable selection approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 114(C).
    21. Fernando de Menezes Linardi, 2016. "Assessing the Fit of a Small Open-Economy DSGE Model for the Brazilian Economy," Working Papers Series 424, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Bayesian methods; Macroeconomic forecasting; New Keynesian DSGE; Small open economy; Vector autoregressions;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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