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Stock Price Dynamics and the Business Cycle in an Estimated DSGE Model for South Africa

Author

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  • Michael Paetz

    () (Department of Economics, University of Hamburg)

  • Rangan Gupta

    () (Department of Economics, University of Pretoria)

Abstract

This paper develops and estimates an open economy dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model of South Africa. We devote special attention to the impact of stock price wealth effects on output and the interest rate. For this reason we adopt a perpetual youth approach, which allows for a limited decision horizon. We estimate the model using Bayesian techniques and find that (i) about 9 percent of the volatility in production can be explained by financial shocks, and (ii) the SARB does not and should not react on stock price disturbances. Moreover, stock prices seem to be unaffected by shocks from the real economy.

Suggested Citation

  • Michael Paetz & Rangan Gupta, 2014. "Stock Price Dynamics and the Business Cycle in an Estimated DSGE Model for South Africa," Working Papers 201441, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:pre:wpaper:201441
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Georgiadis, Georgios & Jančoková, Martina, 2017. "Financial globalisation, monetary policy spillovers and macro-modelling: tales from 1001 shocks," Working Paper Series 2082, European Central Bank.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    DSGE models; wealth effects; open economy; South Africa;

    JEL classification:

    • D91 - Microeconomics - - Micro-Based Behavioral Economics - - - Role and Effects of Psychological, Emotional, Social, and Cognitive Factors on Decision Making
    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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