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Estimation bayésienne d'un modèle DSGE pour une petite économie ouverte : Cas de la RD Congo
[Bayesian estimation of a DSGE model for a small open economy: Case of DR Congo]

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  • UMBA, Gilles Bertrand

Abstract

The aim of this work was to estimate a DSGE-SOE model for the DR Congo by referring to the Bayesian techniques for the quarterly data from 2002q1 to 2016q4 in order to analyze the relations between the main macroeconomic variables and to simulate the " impact of some major shocks on their evolution. The results of model estimation were generally satisfactory, especially with respect to the convergence tests of Brooks and Gelman (1998). The results of the analysis of historical decomposition have revealed the influence of exchange rate and output shocks on internal and external productivity shocks as the main determinants of the policy rate and interest rate movements. domestic inflation. An analysis of the historical decomposition of the rate of exchange rate depreciation has indicated the notorious influence of exchange rate and monetary policy shocks in the explanation of exchange rate depreciation during the last three quarters of the year 2016.

Suggested Citation

  • UMBA, Gilles Bertrand, 2017. "Estimation bayésienne d'un modèle DSGE pour une petite économie ouverte : Cas de la RD Congo [Bayesian estimation of a DSGE model for a small open economy: Case of DR Congo]," MPRA Paper 81324, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:81324
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    Cited by:

    1. Katuala, Hénock M., 2021. "Frictions financières et Dynamique macroéconomique : Examen des régularités cycliques," Dynare Working Papers 66, CEPREMAP.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Open economy; Dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models; Bayesian techniques; New Keynesian models;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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