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A Quarterly Macroeconometric Model of the Turkish Economy

Author

Listed:
  • Cem Aysoy
  • Ahmet N. Kipici

Abstract

This paper aims at describing a small-scale quarterly model for the Turkish economy. It differs from previous work in two respects; (i) the explicit treatment of the expectations in the inflationary process; (ii) the effect of public borrowing on inflation via interest rates. We conclude that expectations have the greatest importance in the determination of inflation along with the exchange rate in Turkey. In addition, to use the overnight interest rate as an effective policy tool, it seems to be essential to accomplish the structural reforms so as to eliminate risk premium due to the concerns about the debt sustainability.

Suggested Citation

  • Cem Aysoy & Ahmet N. Kipici, 2005. "A Quarterly Macroeconometric Model of the Turkish Economy," Central Bank Review, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey, vol. 5(2), pages 39-71.
  • Handle: RePEc:tcb:cebare:v:5:y:2005:i:2:p:39-71
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.tcmb.gov.tr/wps/wcm/connect/EN/TCMB+EN/Main+Menu/Publications/Central+Bank+Review/2005/Volume+5-2/
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ozatay, Fatih, 2000. "A quarterly macroeconometric model for a highly inflationary and indebted country: Turkey," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 1-11, January.
    2. Jason Furman & Joseph E. Stiglitz, 1998. "Economic Crises: Evidence and Insights from East Asia," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 29(2), pages 1-136.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Econometric Modeling; Financing Public Borrowing; Expectations;

    JEL classification:

    • C50 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - General
    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods

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