IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bkr/journl/v79y2020i4p3-17.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Assessing the Consequences of the Pandemic for the Russian Economy Through an Input-Output Model

Author

Listed:
  • Aleksey Ponomarenko

    (Bank of Russia)

  • Svetlana Popova

    (Bank of Russia)

  • Andrey Sinyakov

    (Bank of Russia)

  • Natalia Turdyeva

    (Bank of Russia)

  • Dmitry Chernyadyev

    (Bank of Russia)

Abstract

This paper evaluates the impact of anti-coronavirus measures on the dynamics of economic activity. In addition to primary shocks directly caused by restrictive measures, we assess their secondary effects through inter-industry relationships. Our assessments show that secondary effects impact more industries than primary effects do. The overall impact of secondary effects on the economy proves to be of a larger scale than the impact of primary effects with high heterogeneity of dynamics by industry.

Suggested Citation

  • Aleksey Ponomarenko & Svetlana Popova & Andrey Sinyakov & Natalia Turdyeva & Dmitry Chernyadyev, 2020. "Assessing the Consequences of the Pandemic for the Russian Economy Through an Input-Output Model," Russian Journal of Money and Finance, Bank of Russia, vol. 79(4), pages 3-17, December.
  • Handle: RePEc:bkr:journl:v:79:y:2020:i:4:p:3-17
    DOI: 10.31477/rjmf.202004.03
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://rjmf.econs.online/upload/iblock/9bb/Consequences-Pandemic-Russian-Economy.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.31477/rjmf.202004.03?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Scott R Baker & Robert A Farrokhnia & Steffen Meyer & Michaela Pagel & Constantine Yannelis & Jeffrey Pontiff, 0. "How Does Household Spending Respond to an Epidemic? Consumption during the 2020 COVID-19 Pandemic," Review of Asset Pricing Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 10(4), pages 834-862.
    2. Valentina Aprigliano & Guerino Ardizzi & Libero Monteforte, 2019. "Using Payment System Data to Forecast Economic Activity," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 15(4), pages 55-80, October.
    3. Julian Kozlowski & Laura Veldkamp & Venky Venkateswaran, 2020. "Scarring Body and Mind: The Long-Term Belief-Scarring Effects of COVID-19," NBER Working Papers 27439, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Bonadio, Barthélémy & Huo, Zhen & Levchenko, Andrei A. & Pandalai-Nayar, Nitya, 2021. "Global supply chains in the pandemic," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    5. Christopher Avery & William Bossert & Adam Clark & Glenn Ellison & Sara Fisher Ellison, 2020. "Policy Implications of Models of the Spread of Coronavirus: Perspectives and Opportunities for Economists," NBER Working Papers 27007, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Andersen, Asger Lau & Hansen, Emil Toft & Johannesen, Niels & Sheridan, Adam, 2020. "Consumer Responses to the COVID-19 Crisis: Evidence from Bank Account Transaction Data," CEPR Discussion Papers 14809, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    7. Christopher Avery & William Bossert & Adam Thomas Clark & Glenn Ellison & Sara Ellison, 2020. "Policy Implications of Models of the Spread of Coronavirus: Perspectives and Opportunities for Economists," CESifo Working Paper Series 8293, CESifo.
    8. Jean-Noël Barrot & Basile Grassi & Julien Sauvagnat, 2020. "Sectoral Effects of Social Distancing," Working Papers hal-02896730, HAL.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Natalia Turdyeva & Anna Tsvetkova & Levon Movsesyan & Alexey Porshakov & Dmitriy Chernyadyev, 2021. "Data of Sectoral Financial Flows as a High-Frequency Indicator of Economic Activity," Russian Journal of Money and Finance, Bank of Russia, vol. 80(2), pages 28-49, June.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. George, Ammu & Li, Changtai & Lim, Jing Zhi & Xie, Taojun, 2021. "From SARS to COVID-19: The evolving role of China-ASEAN production network," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 101(C).
    2. Michael Barnett & Greg Buchak & Constantine Yannelis, 2020. "Epidemic Responses Under Uncertainty," NBER Working Papers 27289, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Peter A.G. van Bergeijk, 2021. "Pandemic Economics," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 20401.
    4. Guillaume Vandenbroucke, 2020. "The Mechanics of Individually- and Socially-Optimal Decisions during an Epidemic," Working Papers 2020-013, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, revised 14 Sep 2021.
    5. Michael Barnett & Greg Buchak & Constantine Yannelis, 2020. "Epidemic Responses Under Uncertainty," Working Papers 2020-72, Becker Friedman Institute for Research In Economics.
    6. Yothin Jinjarak & Rashad Ahmed & Sameer Nair-Desai & Weining Xin & Joshua Aizenman, 2020. "Accounting for Global COVID-19 Diffusion Patterns, January–April 2020," Economics of Disasters and Climate Change, Springer, vol. 4(3), pages 515-559, October.
    7. Dräger, Lena & Bui, Dzung & Nghiem, Giang & Hayo, Bernd, 2021. "Consumer Sentiment During the COVID-19 Pandemic," VfS Annual Conference 2021 (Virtual Conference): Climate Economics 242375, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    8. Maximilian Blesch & Philipp Eisenhauer, 2021. "Robust decision-making under risk and ambiguity," Papers 2104.12573, arXiv.org, revised Oct 2021.
    9. Jesper Akesson & Sam Ashworth-Hayes & Robert Hahn & Robert D. Metcalfe & Itzhak Rasooly, 2020. "Fatalism, Beliefs, and Behaviors During the COVID-19 Pandemic," NBER Working Papers 27245, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Dzung Bui & Lena Draeger & Bernd Hayo & Giang NghiemŸ, 2020. "Consumer Sentiment During the COVID-19 Pandemic: The Role of Others' Beliefs," MAGKS Papers on Economics 202049, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).
    11. Chad Cotti & Bryan Engelhardt & Joshua Foster & Erik Nesson & Paul Niekamp, 2021. "The relationship between in‐person voting and COVID‐19: Evidence from the Wisconsin primary," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 39(4), pages 760-777, October.
    12. Baqaee, David Rezza & Burstein, Ariel, 2021. "Welfare and Output with Income Effects and Taste Shocks," CEPR Discussion Papers 16132, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    13. Cem Çakmaklı & Selva Demiralp & Ṣebnem Kalemli-Özcan & Sevcan Yeşiltaş & Muhammed A. Yıldırım, 2021. "The Economic Case for Global Vaccinations: An Epidemiological Model with International Production Networks," NBER Working Papers 28395, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    14. d’Albis, Hippolyte & Augeraud-Véron, Emmanuelle, 2021. "Optimal prevention and elimination of infectious diseases," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(C).
    15. Korolev, Ivan, 2021. "Identification and estimation of the SEIRD epidemic model for COVID-19," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 220(1), pages 63-85.
    16. Christopher Avery & William Bossert & Adam Clark & Glenn Ellison & Sara Fisher Ellison, 2020. "An Economist's Guide to Epidemiology Models of Infectious Disease," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 34(4), pages 79-104, Fall.
    17. Nicolò Gatti & Beatrice Retali, 2021. "Fighting the spread of Covid-19 : was the Swiss lockdown worth it?," IdEP Economic Papers 2101, USI Università della Svizzera italiana.
    18. Wang, Lipeng & Zhang, Mengyu & Verousis, Thanos, 2021. "The road to economic recovery: Pandemics and innovation," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
    19. Christopher D. Carroll & Edmund Crawley & Jiri Slacalek & Matthew N. White, 2021. "Modeling the Consumption Response to the CARES Act," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 17(1), pages 107-141, March.
    20. Peter Eppinger & Gabriel J. Felbermayr & Oliver Krebs & Bohdan Kukharskyy, 2020. "Covid-19 Shocking Global Value Chains," CESifo Working Paper Series 8572, CESifo.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    COVID-19; input-output model; payment system; GDP;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • C67 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Input-Output Models
    • I1 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bkr:journl:v:79:y:2020:i:4:p:3-17. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: . General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/cbrgvru.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Olga Kuvshinova (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/cbrgvru.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.