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Russia's Import Dependence and Estimated Consequences of Import Restrictions

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  • Danila Karpov

    (Bank of Russia)

Abstract

This paper assesses the direct and indirect dependence of the Russian economy on imported inputs across various industries and compares these figures with similar data for other economies. Additionally, this research indirectly takes into account the qualitative aspect of this dependence, that is, the possible existence of critical components for industries. The findings suggest that a number of industries in the Russian economy are highly reliant on imports, but this dependence does not exceed the average for similar economies. This paper demonstrates how information about the economy's reliance on imports can be used in practice to quickly estimate the response of gross domestic product (GDP) to exogenous changes in imports of intermediate goods. Specifically, in early March 2022, due to restrictions on the import of intermediate goods, it was estimated that, under realistic assumptions, the maximum decline in annual GDP could be 7.5%.

Suggested Citation

  • Danila Karpov, 2023. "Russia's Import Dependence and Estimated Consequences of Import Restrictions," Russian Journal of Money and Finance, Bank of Russia, vol. 82(1), pages 55-86, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:bkr:journl:v:82:y:2023:i:1:p:55-86
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    input-output tables; import dependence; intermediate goods imports; substitution elasticity; GDP;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C67 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Input-Output Models
    • D57 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium - - - Input-Output Tables and Analysis
    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade

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