IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/yor/yorken/20-05.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Epidemic policy under uncertainty and information

Author

Listed:
  • Martin Forster
  • Emanuela Randon

Abstract

We present a model of infectious disease control which incorporates uncertainty and information. A policy-maker possesses beliefs about the value of a key parameter - we choose the level of herd immunity in the population - and seeks the welfare-maximising level of intervention, accounting for both the public health benefit and economic cost. An approximation to the optimal rule shows that it accounts for interactions between beliefs, the policy-maker's attitude to risk, the production technology and costs, and the weights in the welfare function. We consider the role of information, in the form of expert opinion and scientific advice, in influencing the policy-maker's beliefs and the optimal policy. We assess the framework's potential for advancing the economic modelling of epidemic control.

Suggested Citation

  • Martin Forster & Emanuela Randon, 2020. "Epidemic policy under uncertainty and information," Discussion Papers 20/05, Department of Economics, University of York.
  • Handle: RePEc:yor:yorken:20/05
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.york.ac.uk/media/economics/documents/discussionpapers/2020/2005.pdf
    File Function: Main text
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Drummond, Michael F. & Sculpher, Mark J. & Torrance, George W. & O'Brien, Bernie J. & Stoddart, Greg L., 2005. "Methods for the Economic Evaluation of Health Care Programmes," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, edition 3, number 9780198529453.
    2. Moser, Christian & Yared, Pierre, 2020. "Pandemic Lockdown: The Role of Government Commitment," MPRA Paper 99804, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Julian Kozlowski & Laura Veldkamp & Venky Venkateswaran, 2020. "Scarring Body and Mind: The Long-Term Belief-Scarring Effects of COVID-19," NBER Working Papers 27439, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Gonzalez-Eiras, Martin & Niepelt, Dirk, 2020. "On the Optimal "Lockdown" During an Epidemic," CEPR Discussion Papers 14612, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    5. Andrew Atkeson, 2020. "How Deadly is COVID-19? Understanding the Difficulties with Estimation of its Fatality Rate," Staff Report 598, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
    6. Jeremy E. Oakley & Anthony O'Hagan, 2007. "Uncertainty in prior elicitations: a nonparametric approach," Biometrika, Biometrika Trust, vol. 94(2), pages 427-441.
    7. Avinash K. Dixit & Robert S. Pindyck, 1994. "Investment under Uncertainty," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, number 5474, April.
    8. Christoph M. Rheinberger & Nicolas Treich, 2017. "Attitudes Toward Catastrophe," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 67(3), pages 609-636, July.
    9. L. Eeckhoudt & C. Gollier & H. Schlesinger, 2005. "Economic and financial decisions under risk," Post-Print hal-00325882, HAL.
    10. Hiroyasu Inoue & Yasuyuki Todo, 2020. "The propagation of the economic impact through supply chains: The case of a mega-city lockdown against the spread of COVID-19," Papers 2003.14002, arXiv.org.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Altig, Dave & Baker, Scott & Barrero, Jose Maria & Bloom, Nicholas & Bunn, Philip & Chen, Scarlet & Davis, Steven J. & Leather, Julia & Meyer, Brent & Mihaylov, Emil & Mizen, Paul & Parker, Nicholas &, 2020. "Economic uncertainty before and during the COVID-19 pandemic," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 191(C).
    2. De Sousa, José & Disdier, Anne-Célia & Gaigné, Carl, 2020. "Export decision under risk," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 121(C).
    3. Danau, Daniel, 2020. "Prudence and preference for flexibility gain," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 287(2), pages 776-785.
    4. Corneo, Giacomo, 2015. "Volkswirtschaftliche Bewertung öffentlicher Investitionen," Discussion Papers 2015/12, Free University Berlin, School of Business & Economics.
    5. Inekwe John Nkwoma, 2014. "Business Cycle Variability and Growth Linkage," Monash Economics Working Papers 38-14, Monash University, Department of Economics.
    6. Mankan M. Koné & Carl Gaigné & Lota Tamini, 2017. "Duopolistic Competition and Optimal Switching Time from Export to FDI in Uncertainty," CIRANO Working Papers 2017s-23, CIRANO.
    7. Guillaume Vandenbroucke, 2020. "Endogenous Social Distancing in an Epidemic," Working Papers 2020-013, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    8. Cem Çakmaklı & Selva Demiralp & Ṣebnem Kalemli-Özcan & Sevcan Yesiltas & Muhammed A. Yildirim, 2020. "COVID-19 and Emerging Markets: A SIR Model, Demand Shocks and Capital Flows," NBER Working Papers 27191, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Rosella Levaggi & Michele Moretto & Vincenzo Rebba, 2009. "Investment decisions in hospital technology when physicians are devoted workers," Economics of Innovation and New Technology, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(5), pages 487-512.
    10. Ben Abdallah, Skander & Lasserre, Pierre, 2016. "Asset retirement with infinitely repeated alternative replacements: Harvest age and species choice in forestry," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 144-164.
    11. Oscar Gutiérrez & Francisco Ruiz-Aliseda, 2011. "Real options with unknown-date events," Annals of Finance, Springer, vol. 7(2), pages 171-198, May.
    12. Timothy Erickson & Toni M. Whited, 2000. "Measurement Error and the Relationship between Investment and q," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 108(5), pages 1027-1057, October.
    13. Thomas F. Crossley & Hamish W. Low, 2011. "Is The Elasticity Of Intertemporal Substitution Constant?," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 9(1), pages 87-105, February.
    14. Stern, Nicholas, 2018. "Public economics as if time matters: Climate change and the dynamics of policy," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 162(C), pages 4-17.
    15. Krause, M.U., 2002. "Inter-Industry Wage Differentials and Job Flows," Discussion Paper 2002-3, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
    16. Wong, Kit Pong & Yi, Long, 2013. "Irreversibility, mean reversion, and investment timing," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 770-775.
    17. Atal, Vidya & Bar, Talia & Gordon, Sidartha, 2016. "Project selection: Commitment and competition," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 30-48.
    18. Yonggu Kim & Keeyoung Shin & Joseph Ahn & Eul-Bum Lee, 2017. "Probabilistic Cash Flow-Based Optimal Investment Timing Using Two-Color Rainbow Options Valuation for Economic Sustainability Appraisement," Sustainability, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 9(10), pages 1-16, October.
    19. Bergendahl, Goran, 2005. "Models for investment in electronic commerce--financial perspectives with empirical evidence," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 363-376, August.
    20. Paal Joranger & Arild Nesbakken & Halfdan Sorbye & Geir Hoff & Arne Oshaug & Eline Aas, 2020. "Survival and costs of colorectal cancer treatment and effects of changing treatment strategies: a model approach," The European Journal of Health Economics, Springer;Deutsche Gesellschaft für Gesundheitsökonomie (DGGÖ), vol. 21(3), pages 321-334, April.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Economics; Epidemics; COVID-19;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • I18 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Government Policy; Regulation; Public Health
    • H12 - Public Economics - - Structure and Scope of Government - - - Crisis Management
    • H51 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Government Expenditures and Health

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:yor:yorken:20/05. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: . General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/deyoruk.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Paul Hodgson (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/deyoruk.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.