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Modelling general dependence between commodity forward curves

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  • Mikhail Zolotko
  • Ostap Okhrin

Abstract

This study proposes a novel framework for the joint modelling of commodity forward curves. Its key contribution is twofold. First, dynamic correlation models are applied in this context as part of the modelling scheme. Second, we introduce a family of dynamic conditional correlation models based on hierarchical Archimedean copulae (HAC DCC), which are flexible, but parsimonious instruments that capture a wide range of dynamic dependencies. The conducted analysis allows us to obtain precise out-of-sample forecasts of the distribution of the returns of various commodity futures portfolios. The Value-at-Risk analysis shows that HAC DCC models outperform other introduced benchmark models on a consistent basis.

Suggested Citation

  • Mikhail Zolotko & Ostap Okhrin, 2012. "Modelling general dependence between commodity forward curves," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2012-060, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
  • Handle: RePEc:hum:wpaper:sfb649dp2012-060
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    File URL: http://sfb649.wiwi.hu-berlin.de/papers/pdf/SFB649DP2012-060.pdf
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    Keywords

    commodity forward curves; multivariate GARCH; hierarchical Archimedean copula; Value-at-Risk;

    JEL classification:

    • C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • Q40 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - General

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