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The performance of composite forecast models of value-at-risk in the energy market

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  • Chiu, Yen-Chen
  • Chuang, I-Yuan
  • Lai, Jing-Yi

Abstract

This paper examines a comparative evaluation of the predictive performance of various Value-at-Risk (VaR) models in the energy market. This study extends the conventional research in literature, by proposing composite forecast models for applying to Brent and WTI crude oil prices. Forecasting techniques considered here include the EWMA, stable density, Kernel density, Hull and White, GARCH-GPD, plus composite forecasts from linearly combining two or more of the competing models above. Findings show Hull and White to be the most powerful approach for capturing downside risk in the energy market. Reasonable results are also available from carefully combining VaR forecasts.

Suggested Citation

  • Chiu, Yen-Chen & Chuang, I-Yuan & Lai, Jing-Yi, 2010. "The performance of composite forecast models of value-at-risk in the energy market," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 423-431, March.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:eneeco:v:32:y:2010:i:2:p:423-431
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Henry Asante Antwi & Zhou Lulin & Ethel Yiranbon & James Onuche Ayegba & Mary-Ann Yebaoh & Emmanuel Osei Bonsu, 2014. "Risk Modelling in Healthcare Markets: a Comparative Analysis of three Risk Measurement Approaches," International Journal of Academic Research in Accounting, Finance and Management Sciences, Human Resource Management Academic Research Society, International Journal of Academic Research in Accounting, Finance and Management Sciences, vol. 4(2), pages 271-281, April.
    2. Zolotko, Mikhail & Okhrin, Ostap, 2014. "Modelling the general dependence between commodity forward curves," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 284-296.
    3. Paraschiv, Florentina & Mudry, Pierre-Antoine & Andries, Alin Marius, 2015. "Stress-testing for portfolios of commodity futures," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 9-18.
    4. repec:eee:eneeco:v:63:y:2017:i:c:p:129-143 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. He, Kaijian & Lai, Kin Keung & Yen, Jerome, 2011. "Value-at-risk estimation of crude oil price using MCA based transient risk modeling approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(5), pages 903-911, September.
    6. Ghorbel, Ahmed & Trabelsi, Abdelwahed, 2014. "Energy portfolio risk management using time-varying extreme value copula methods," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 470-485.
    7. Kostas Andriosopoulos & Nikos Nomikos, 2012. "Risk management in the energy markets and Value-at-Risk modelling: a Hybrid approach," RSCAS Working Papers 2012/47, European University Institute.

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