IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/pav/demwpp/021.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Independent Factor Autoregressive Conditional Density Model

Author

Listed:
  • Alexios Ghalanos

    () (Faculty of Finance, Cass Business School)

  • Eduardo Rossi

    () (Department of Economics and Management, University of Pavia)

  • Giovanni Urga

    () (Faculty of Finance, Cass Business School and University of Bergamo)

Abstract

In this paper, we propose a novel Independent Factor Autoregressive Conditional Density (IFACD) model able to generate time-varying higher moments using an independent factor setup. Our proposed framework incorporates dynamic estimation of higher comovements and feasible portfolio representation within a non elliptical multivariate distribution. We report an empirical application, using returns data from 14 MSCI equity index iShares for the period 1996 to 2011, and we show that the IFACD model provides superior VaR forecasts and portfolio allocations with respect to the CHICAGO and DCC models.

Suggested Citation

  • Alexios Ghalanos & Eduardo Rossi & Giovanni Urga, 2012. "Independent Factor Autoregressive Conditional Density Model," DEM Working Papers Series 021, University of Pavia, Department of Economics and Management.
  • Handle: RePEc:pav:demwpp:021
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://economia.unipv.it/docs/dipeco/quad/ps/RePEc/pav/demwpp/DEMWP0021.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Peter Boswijk, H. & van der Weide, Roy, 2011. "Method of moments estimation of GO-GARCH models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 163(1), pages 118-126, July.
    2. Beaulieu, Marie-Claude & Dufour, Jean-Marie & Khalaf, Lynda, 2009. "Finite sample multivariate tests of asset pricing models with coskewness," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 53(6), pages 2008-2021, April.
    3. Chen, Ying & Härdle, Wolfgang & Jeong, Seok-Oh, 2008. "Nonparametric Risk Management With Generalized Hyperbolic Distributions," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 103(483), pages 910-923.
    4. Berkowitz, Jeremy, 2001. "Testing Density Forecasts, with Applications to Risk Management," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 19(4), pages 465-474, October.
    5. Anders Wilhelmsson, 2009. "Value at Risk with time varying variance, skewness and kurtosis--the NIG-ACD model," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 12(1), pages 82-104, March.
    6. Eric Jondeau & Michael Rockinger, 2006. "Optimal Portfolio Allocation under Higher Moments," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 12(1), pages 29-55.
    7. Mencía, Javier & Sentana, Enrique, 2009. "Multivariate location-scale mixtures of normals and mean-variance-skewness portfolio allocation," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, pages 105-121.
    8. Peter R. Hansen & Asger Lunde & James M. Nason, 2011. "The Model Confidence Set," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 79(2), pages 453-497, March.
    9. Harvey, Campbell R. & Siddique, Akhtar, 1999. "Autoregressive Conditional Skewness," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 34(04), pages 465-487, December.
    10. Peter Christoffersen, 2004. "Backtesting Value-at-Risk: A Duration-Based Approach," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Society for Financial Econometrics, vol. 2(1), pages 84-108.
    11. Roy van der Weide, 2004. "Wake me up before you GO-GARCH," Computing in Economics and Finance 2004 316, Society for Computational Economics.
    12. Christoffersen, Peter F, 1998. "Evaluating Interval Forecasts," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 39(4), pages 841-862, November.
    13. White, Halbert, 1982. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation of Misspecified Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(1), pages 1-25, January.
    14. J. T. A. S. Ferreira & M. F. J. Steel, 2004. "On Describing Multivariate Skewness: A Directional Approach," Econometrics 0409010, EconWPA.
    15. Harry Markowitz, 1952. "Portfolio Selection," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 7(1), pages 77-91, March.
    16. Ledoit, Oliver & Wolf, Michael, 2008. "Robust performance hypothesis testing with the Sharpe ratio," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 15(5), pages 850-859, December.
    17. Jondeau, Eric & Rockinger, Michael, 2003. "Conditional volatility, skewness, and kurtosis: existence, persistence, and comovements," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 27(10), pages 1699-1737, August.
    18. Engle, Robert F. & Ng, Victor K. & Rothschild, Michael, 1990. "Asset pricing with a factor-arch covariance structure : Empirical estimates for treasury bills," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 45(1-2), pages 213-237.
    19. Schmidt, Rafael & Hrycej, Tomas & Stutzle, Eric, 2006. "Multivariate distribution models with generalized hyperbolic margins," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 50(8), pages 2065-2096, April.
    20. Javier Mencía & Enrique Sentana, 2012. "Distributional Tests in Multivariate Dynamic Models with Normal and Student-t Innovations," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, pages 133-152.
    21. Ross, Stephen A., 1976. "The arbitrage theory of capital asset pricing," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 13(3), pages 341-360, December.
    22. Paul H. Kupiec, 1995. "Techniques for verifying the accuracy of risk measurement models," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 95-24, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    23. Bauwens, Luc & Laurent, Sebastien, 2005. "A New Class of Multivariate Skew Densities, With Application to Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 23, pages 346-354, July.
    24. Rockinger, Michael & Jondeau, Eric, 2002. "Entropy densities with an application to autoregressive conditional skewness and kurtosis," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, pages 119-142.
    25. Lionel Martellini & Volker Ziemann, 2010. "Improved Estimates of Higher-Order Comoments and Implications for Portfolio Selection," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 23(4), pages 1467-1502, April.
    26. Scott, Robert C & Horvath, Philip A, 1980. " On the Direction of Preference for Moments of Higher Order Than the Variance," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 35(4), pages 915-919, September.
    27. Eric Jondeau & Michael Rockinger, 2009. "The Impact of Shocks on Higher Moments," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Society for Financial Econometrics, vol. 7(2), pages 77-105, Spring.
    28. Giovanni Barone Adesi & Patrick Gagliardini & Giovanni Urga, 2004. "Testing Asset Pricing Models With Coskewness," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 22, pages 474-485, October.
    29. Kroner, Kenneth F & Ng, Victor K, 1998. "Modeling Asymmetric Comovements of Asset Returns," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 11(4), pages 817-844.
    30. Hansen, Bruce E, 1994. "Autoregressive Conditional Density Estimation," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 35(3), pages 705-730, August.
    31. Roy van der Weide, 2002. "GO-GARCH: a multivariate generalized orthogonal GARCH model," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 17(5), pages 549-564.
    32. Bertrand Maillet & Emmanuel Jurczenko, 2006. "Multi-moment Asset Allocation and Pricing Models," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) hal-00308990, HAL.
    33. Simon A. Broda & Marc S. Paolella, 2009. "CHICAGO: A Fast and Accurate Method for Portfolio Risk Calculation," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Society for Financial Econometrics, vol. 7(4), pages 412-436, Fall.
    34. Enrique Sentana, 2009. "The econometrics of mean-variance efficiency tests: a survey," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 12(3), pages 65-101, November.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Yue, Wei & Wang, Yuping, 2017. "A new fuzzy multi-objective higher order moment portfolio selection model for diversified portfolios," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 465(C), pages 124-140.
    2. Basher, Syed Abul & Sadorsky, Perry, 2016. "Hedging emerging market stock prices with oil, gold, VIX, and bonds: A comparison between DCC, ADCC and GO-GARCH," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 235-247.
    3. Boudt, Kris & Lu, Wanbo & Peeters, Benedict, 2015. "Higher order comoments of multifactor models and asset allocation," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 13(C), pages 225-233.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Independent Factor Model; GO-GARCH; Independent Component Analysis; Timevarying Co-moments;

    JEL classification:

    • C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General
    • C16 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Econometric and Statistical Methods; Specific Distributions
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pav:demwpp:021. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Alice Albonico). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/dppavit.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.