IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/pra/mprapa/14937.html

Natural Gas markets:How Sensitive to Crude Oil Price Changes?

Author

Listed:
  • Onour, Ibrahim

Abstract

This paper investigates sensitivity of U.S. natural gas price to crude oil price changes, using time-varying coefficient models. Identification of the range of variation of the sensitivity of natural gas price to oil price change allows more accurate assessment of upper and minimum risk levels that can be utilized in pricing natural gas derivatives such as gas futures and option contracts, and gas storage facility contracts.

Suggested Citation

  • Onour, Ibrahim, 2009. "Natural Gas markets:How Sensitive to Crude Oil Price Changes?," MPRA Paper 14937, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:14937
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/14937/1/MPRA_paper_14937.pdf
    File Function: original version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Apostolos Serletis & Ricardo Rangel-Ruiz, 2007. "Testing for Common Features in North American Energy Markets," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Quantitative And Empirical Analysis Of Energy Markets, chapter 14, pages 172-187, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    2. F. Vahid & R. F. Engle, 1993. "Common Trends And Common Cycles," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 8(4), pages 341-360, October.
    3. Sharpe, William F., 1967. "Portfolio Analysis," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 2(2), pages 76-84, June.
    4. Andrew J. Patton, 2004. "On the Out-of-Sample Importance of Skewness and Asymmetric Dependence for Asset Allocation," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Oxford University Press, vol. 2(1), pages 130-168.
    5. Robert W. Faff & David Hillier & Joseph Hillier, 2000. "Time Varying Beta Risk: An Analysis of Alternative Modelling Techniques," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 27(5‐6), pages 523-554, June.
    6. Stephen P.A. Brown & Mine K. Yücel, 2008. "What Drives Natural Gas Prices?," The Energy Journal, , vol. 29(2), pages 45-60, April.
    7. Harvey, Campbell R. & Siddique, Akhtar, 1999. "Autoregressive Conditional Skewness," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 34(4), pages 465-487, December.
    8. Engle, Robert F & Kozicki, Sharon, 1993. "Testing for Common Features," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 11(4), pages 369-380, October.
    9. Frank Asche & Petter Osmundsen & Maria Sandsmark, 2006. "The UK Market for Natural Gas, Oil and Electricity: Are the Prices Decoupled?," The Energy Journal, , vol. 27(2), pages 27-40, April.
    10. Diebold, Francis X & Mariano, Roberto S, 2002. "Comparing Predictive Accuracy," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 134-144, January.
    11. Jun Yu, 2002. "Forecasting volatility in the New Zealand stock market," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(3), pages 193-202.
    12. Robert W. Faff & David Hillier & Joseph Hillier, 2000. "Time Varying Beta Risk: An Analysis of Alternative Modelling Techniques," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 27(5‐6), pages 523-554, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Zolotko, Mikhail & Okhrin, Ostap, 2014. "Modelling the general dependence between commodity forward curves," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 284-296.
    2. Subhani, Muhammad Imtiaz & Hasan, Syed Akif & Osman, Ms. Amber, 2012. "Are the Prices of Light Diesel Oil, Gasoline, CNG and Kerosene Oil Co-Integrated?," MPRA Paper 45142, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Cornille, David & Meyler, Aidan, 2010. "The behaviour of consumer gas prices in an environment of high and volatile oil prices," MPRA Paper 39099, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Zied Ftiti & Kais Tissaoui & Sahbi Boubaker, 2022. "On the relationship between oil and gas markets: a new forecasting framework based on a machine learning approach," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 313(2), pages 915-943, June.
    5. Gatfaoui, Hayette, 2016. "Linking the gas and oil markets with the stock market: Investigating the U.S. relationship," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 5-16.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Onour, Ibrahim, 2008. "Forward-Looking Beta Estimates:Evidence from an Emerging Market," MPRA Paper 14992, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Ibrahim Onour, "undated". "Exploring Stability of Systematic Risk: Sectoral Portfolio Analysis," API-Working Paper Series 1002, Arab Planning Institute - Kuwait, Information Center.
    3. Dr. Ibrahim Onour, "undated". "The Global Financial Crisis and Equity Markets in Middle East Oil Exporting Countries," API-Working Paper Series 1009, Arab Planning Institute - Kuwait, Information Center.
    4. Ibrahim A. Onour, 2021. "Modeling and assessing systematic risk in stock markets in major oil exporting countries," Economic Consultant, Scientific and Educational Initiative LLC, vol. 35(3), pages 18-29.
    5. repec:bla:opecrv:v:33:y:2009:i:2:p:111-124 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Vatsa, Puneet & Basnet, Hem C., 2020. "The dynamics of energy prices and the Norwegian economy: A common trends and common cycles analysis," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    7. Taufiq Choudhry & Hao Wu, 2008. "Forecasting ability of GARCH vs Kalman filter method: evidence from daily UK time-varying beta," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(8), pages 670-689.
    8. Ibrahim A. Onour, 2012. "Crude oil price and stock markets in major oil-exporting countries: evidence of decoupling feature," International Journal of Monetary Economics and Finance, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 5(1), pages 1-10.
    9. Abdullahi Alim & Peter R. Hartley & Yihui Lan, 2018. "Asian Spot Prices for LNG and other Energy Commodities," The Energy Journal, , vol. 39(1), pages 123-142, January.
    10. Sen, Chitrakalpa & Chakrabarti, Gagari, 2024. "Beyond the glitter: An empirical assessment of the true risk and hedging role of precious metals," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 96(C).
    11. repec:ipg:wpaper:2014-569 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Ortas, E. & Salvador, M. & Moneva, J.M., 2015. "Improved beta modeling and forecasting: An unobserved component approach with conditional heteroscedastic disturbances," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 27-51.
    13. Ramberg, David J. & Henry Chen, Y.H. & Paltsev, Sergey & Parsons, John E., 2017. "The economic viability of gas-to-liquids technology and the crude oil–natural gas price relationship," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 13-21.
    14. Zied Ftiti & Kais Tissaoui & Sahbi Boubaker, 2022. "On the relationship between oil and gas markets: a new forecasting framework based on a machine learning approach," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 313(2), pages 915-943, June.
    15. Serdar Neslihanoglu & Stelios Bekiros & John McColl & Duncan Lee, 2021. "Multivariate time-varying parameter modelling for stock markets," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 61(2), pages 947-972, August.
    16. Ortas, Eduardo & Moneva, José M. & Salvador, Manuel, 2012. "Does socially responsible investment equity indexes in emerging markets pay off? Evidence from Brazil," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 13(4), pages 581-597.
    17. Atil, Ahmed & Lahiani, Amine & Nguyen, Duc Khuong, 2014. "Asymmetric and nonlinear pass-through of crude oil prices to gasoline and natural gas prices," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 567-573.
    18. Bulla, Jan & Bulla, Ingo, 2006. "Stylized facts of financial time series and hidden semi-Markov models," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 51(4), pages 2192-2209, December.
    19. Trung H. Le & Apostolos Kourtis & Raphael Markellos, 2023. "Modeling skewness in portfolio choice," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 43(6), pages 734-770, June.
    20. Taufiq Choudhry & Hao Wu, 2009. "Forecasting the weekly time-varying beta of UK firms: GARCH models vs. Kalman filter method," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(4), pages 437-444.
    21. Ohana, Steve, 2010. "Modeling global and local dependence in a pair of commodity forward curves with an application to the US natural gas and heating oil markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 373-388, March.
    22. Асатуров К.Г., 2015. "Динамические Модели Систематического Риска: Сравнение На Примере Индийского Фондового Рынка," Журнал Экономика и математические методы (ЭММ), Центральный Экономико-Математический Институт (ЦЭМИ), vol. 51(4), pages 59-75, октябрь.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C01 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - General - - - Econometrics

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:14937. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Joachim Winter (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/vfmunde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.