IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/pra/mprapa/39099.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The behaviour of consumer gas prices in an environment of high and volatile oil prices

Author

Listed:
  • Cornille, David
  • Meyler, Aidan

Abstract

In this paper we examine the relationship between oil prices and consumer gas prices in the euro area. The main features of the paper are: (1) the combination of low frequency (semi-annual) consumer gas price data on price levels from Eurostat with higher frequency (monthly) index HICP data; (2) the consideration of the different stages in the supply chain - from oil prices, to wholesale (border and spot market prices) to consumer prices; (3) analysis at the aggregated euro area and individual country level; and (4) a sample period covering from 1995 to 2010, covering a period with relatively low and stable oil prices, but also one with higher and more volatile oil prices. The questions we address are: (a) what is the behaviour of gas prices and in particular the pass through of upstream oil and gas prices into consumer prices (i.e. how much is passed through and how quickly) and (b) are there differences across countries. Our main findings are that: First, on average, gas import prices are passed through fully in to consumer gas prices, albeit with some lag. An implication of this is that the elasticity of consumer prices with respect to upstream prices is an increasing function of their level. Second, accounting for the regular calendar for price ‘resetting’ significantly improves the fit of the estimations. However, this cannot be done via regular seasonal dummies but they must be interacted with the error correction term as the reset adjustment may be up or down. Third, in general the fit of the estimations is higher using oil prices as the explanatory variable rather than gas import prices. This may be because gas price setters take into account the signal from current oil price levels when resetting their prices, whereas gas import prices are generally backward looking as in Europe they are mostly index-linked to oil price developments in the preceding months. Fourth, regarding cross-country patterns, there is some evidence of differences which may be linked to differences in the degree of market liberalisation. Lastly, whilst there are signs of some changes in historical long-term relationship between oil prices and gas import prices, these are too recent to be identified robustly using the relatively low frequency, aggregate data we utilise in this paper.

Suggested Citation

  • Cornille, David & Meyler, Aidan, 2010. "The behaviour of consumer gas prices in an environment of high and volatile oil prices," MPRA Paper 39099, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:39099
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/39099/1/MPRA_paper_39099.pdf
    File Function: original version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Robinson, Terry, 2007. "Have European gas prices converged?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 2347-2351, April.
    2. Peter R. Hartley & Kenneth B. Medlock III, 2014. "The Relationship between Crude Oil and Natural Gas Prices: The Role of the Exchange Rate," The Energy Journal, , vol. 35(2), pages 25-44, April.
    3. Apostolos Serletis & Ricardo Rangel-Ruiz, 2007. "Testing for Common Features in North American Energy Markets," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Quantitative And Empirical Analysis Of Energy Markets, chapter 14, pages 172-187, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    4. Stephen P.A. Brown & Mine K. Yücel, 2008. "What Drives Natural Gas Prices?," The Energy Journal, , vol. 29(2), pages 45-60, April.
    5. repec:bla:opecrv:v:33:y:2009:i:2:p:111-124 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Perron, Pierre, 1989. "The Great Crash, the Oil Price Shock, and the Unit Root Hypothesis," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(6), pages 1361-1401, November.
    7. D. Cornille, 2009. "Methodology or pricing: how can the greater volatility of consumer gas and electricity prices in Belgium be explained?," Economic Review, National Bank of Belgium, issue iv, pages 47-57, December.
    8. Onour, Ibrahim, 2009. "Natural Gas markets:How Sensitive to Crude Oil Price Changes?," MPRA Paper 14937, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Frank Asche & Petter Osmundsen & Maria Sandsmark, 2006. "The UK Market for Natural Gas, Oil and Electricity: Are the Prices Decoupled?," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 2), pages 27-40.
    10. Anne Neumann, 2009. "Linking Natural Gas Markets - Is LNG Doing its Job?," The Energy Journal, , vol. 30(1_suppl), pages 187-200, June.
    11. Stephen P. A. Brown and Mine K. Yucel, 2009. "Market Arbitrage: European and North American Natural Gas Prices," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Special I), pages 167-186.
    12. Siliverstovs, Boriss & L'Hegaret, Guillaume & Neumann, Anne & von Hirschhausen, Christian, 2005. "International market integration for natural gas? A cointegration analysis of prices in Europe, North America and Japan," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(4), pages 603-615, July.
    13. Perron, P, 1993. "Erratum [The Great Crash, the Oil Price Shock and the Unit Root Hypothesis]," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(1), pages 248-249, January.
    14. Abdulnasser Hatemi-J, 2008. "Tests for cointegration with two unknown regime shifts with an application to financial market integration," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 35(3), pages 497-505, November.
    15. Meyler, Aidan, 2009. "The pass through of oil prices into euro area consumer liquid fuel prices in an environment of high and volatile oil prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(6), pages 867-881, November.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Bańbura, Marta & Bobeica, Elena & Giammaria, Alessandro & Porqueddu, Mario & van Spronsen, Josha, 2025. "A new model to forecast energy inflation in the euro area," Working Paper Series 3062, European Central Bank.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Chiappini, Raphaël & Jégourel, Yves & Raymond, Paul, 2019. "Towards a worldwide integrated market? New evidence on the dynamics of U.S., European and Asian natural gas prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 545-565.
    2. Erdős, Péter, 2012. "Have oil and gas prices got separated?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 707-718.
    3. Hasanli, Mübariz, 2024. "Re-examining crude oil and natural gas price relationship: Evidence from time-varying regime-switching models," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    4. Nick, Sebastian & Thoenes, Stefan, 2014. "What drives natural gas prices? — A structural VAR approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 517-527.
    5. Abdullahi Alim & Peter R. Hartley & Yihui Lan, 2018. "Asian Spot Prices for LNG and other Energy Commodities," The Energy Journal, , vol. 39(1), pages 123-142, January.
    6. repec:ipg:wpaper:2014-569 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Bastianin, Andrea & Galeotti, Marzio & Polo, Michele, 2019. "Convergence of European natural gas prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 793-811.
    8. Asche, Frank & Misund, Bård & Sikveland, Marius, 2013. "The relationship between spot and contract gas prices in Europe," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 212-217.
    9. Atle Oglend & Morten E. Lindback & Petter Osmundsen, 2016. "Shale Gas Boom Affecting the Relationship Between LPG and Oil Prices," The Energy Journal, , vol. 37(1), pages 211-232, January.
    10. Potts, Todd B. & Yerger, David B., 2016. "Marcellus Shale and structural breaks in oil and gas markets: The case of Pennsylvania," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 50-58.
    11. Barnes, Ryan & Bosworth, Ryan, 2015. "LNG is linking regional natural gas markets: Evidence from the gravity model," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 11-17.
    12. Ivan Aleksandrovich Kopytin & Alexander Oskarovich Maslennikov & Stanislav Vyacheslavovich Zhukov, 2022. "Europe in World Natural Gas Market: International Transmission of European Price Shocks," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 12(3), pages 8-15, May.
    13. Zhang, Dayong & Ji, Qiang, 2018. "Further evidence on the debate of oil-gas price decoupling: A long memory approach," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 113(C), pages 68-75.
    14. Growitsch, Christian & Stronzik, Marcus & Nepal, Rabindra, 2010. "Integration des deutschen Gasgroßhandelsmarktes," WIK Discussion Papers 333, WIK Wissenschaftliches Institut für Infrastruktur und Kommunikationsdienste GmbH.
    15. Atil, Ahmed & Lahiani, Amine & Nguyen, Duc Khuong, 2014. "Asymmetric and nonlinear pass-through of crude oil prices to gasoline and natural gas prices," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 567-573.
    16. Guo, Jiaqi & Long, Shaobo & Luo, Weijie, 2022. "Nonlinear effects of climate policy uncertainty and financial speculation on the global prices of oil and gas," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
    17. Growitsch Christian & Nepal Rabindra & Stronzik Marcus, 2015. "Price Convergence and Information Efficiency in German Natural Gas Markets," German Economic Review, De Gruyter, vol. 16(1), pages 87-103, February.
    18. Chen, Shyh-Wei & Lin, Shih-Mo, 2014. "Non-linear dynamics in international resource markets: Evidence from regime switching approach," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 233-247.
    19. Ohana, Steve, 2010. "Modeling global and local dependence in a pair of commodity forward curves with an application to the US natural gas and heating oil markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 373-388, March.
    20. Robert Ialenti, 2021. "Rising US LNG Exports and Global Natural Gas Price Convergence," Discussion Papers 2021-14, Bank of Canada.
    21. Derek Bunn, Julien Chevallier, Yannick Le Pen, and Benoit Sevi, 2017. "Fundamental and Financial Influences on the Co-movement of Oil and Gas Prices," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 2).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    natural gas consumer prices pass-through elasticity;

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
    • Q43 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy and the Macroeconomy

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:39099. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Joachim Winter (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/vfmunde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.