The pass through of oil prices into euro area consumer liquid fuel prices in an environment of high and volatile oil prices
Crude and refined oil prices have been relatively high and volatile on a sustained basis since 1999. This paper considers the pass through of oil prices into consumer liquid (i.e. petrol, diesel and heating) fuel prices in such an environment. The pass through of oil prices into consumer liquid fuel prices has already been addressed extensively in the literature. Nonetheless much of this literature has either focused on the United States or on a time period when oil prices were relatively stable, or has used monthly data. The main contribution of this paper is a comprehensive combination of many features that have been considered before but rarely jointly. These features include: (1) the analysis of the euro area as an aggregate and a large number of countries (the initial 12 member states); (2) the consideration of different time periods; (3) the modelling of the data in raw levels rather than in log levels. This turns out to have important implications for our findings; (4) the use of high frequency (weekly) data, which, as results will suggest, are the lowest frequency one should consider; (5) the investigation of the different stages of the production chain from crude oil prices to retail distribution -- refining costs and margins, distribution and retailing costs and margins; (6) the examination of prices including and excluding taxes -- excise and value-added; (7) the modelling of prices for three fuel types -- passenger car petrol and diesel separately and home heating fuel oil; (8) lastly we also address the issue of possible asymmetries, allowing for the pass through to vary according to (a) whether price are increasing or decreasing and (b) whether price levels are above or below their equilibrium level. The main findings are as follows: First, as distribution and retailing costs and margins have been broadly stable on average, the modelling of the relationship between consumer prices excluding taxes and upstream prices in raw levels rather than in logarithms has important implications for the stability of estimates of pass through when oil price levels rise significantly. Second, considering spot prices for refined prices improves significantly the fit of the estimated models relative to using crude oil prices. It also results in more economically meaningful results concerning the extent of pass through. Third, oil price pass through occurs quickly, with 90% occurring within three to five weeks. Fourth, using a relatively broad specification allowing for asymmetry in the pass through from upstream to downstream prices, there is little evidence of statistically significant asymmetries. Furthermore, even where asymmetry is found to be statistically significant, it is generally not economically significant. Lastly, these results generally hold across most euro area countries with few exceptions.
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Hosken, Daniel S. & McMillan, Robert S. & Taylor, Christopher T., 2008. "Retail gasoline pricing: What do we know?," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 26(6), pages 1425-1436, November.
- Severin Borenstein & A. Colin Cameron & Richard Gilbert, 1997.
"Do Gasoline Prices Respond Asymmetrically to Crude Oil Price Changes?,"
The Quarterly Journal of Economics,
Oxford University Press, vol. 112(1), pages 305-339.
- Severin Borenstein & A. Colin Cameron, 1992. "Do Gasoline Prices Respond Asymmetrically to Crude Oil Price Changes?," NBER Working Papers 4138, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Giliola Frey & Matteo Manera, 2007.
"Econometric Models Of Asymmetric Price Transmission,"
Journal of Economic Surveys,
Wiley Blackwell, vol. 21(2), pages 349-415, 04.
- Matteo Manera & Giliola Frey, 2005. "Econometric Models of Asymmetric Price Transmission," Working Papers 2005.100, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
- Kaufmann, Robert K. & Laskowski, Cheryl, 2005. "Causes for an asymmetric relation between the price of crude oil and refined petroleum products," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 33(12), pages 1587-1596, August.
- Bacon, Robert W., 1991. "Rockets and feathers: the asymmetric speed of adjustment of UK retail gasoline prices to cost changes," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 13(3), pages 211-218, July.
- Perron, P, 1988.
"The Great Crash, The Oil Price Shock And The Unit Root Hypothesis,"
338, Princeton, Department of Economics - Econometric Research Program.
- Perron, Pierre, 1989. "The Great Crash, the Oil Price Shock, and the Unit Root Hypothesis," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(6), pages 1361-1401, November.
- Pedro Duarte Neves & Paulo Soares Esteves, 2004. "Oil Prices and the Economy," Economic Bulletin and Financial Stability Report Articles, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
- Allan w. Gregory & Bruce E. Hansen, 1992.
"residual-Based Tests for Cointegration in Models with Regime Shifts,"
862, Queen's University, Department of Economics.
- Gregory, Allan W. & Hansen, Bruce E., 1996. "Residual-based tests for cointegration in models with regime shifts," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 70(1), pages 99-126, January.
- Gregory, A.W. & Hansen, B.E., 1992. "Residual-Based Tests for Cointegration in Models with Regime Shifts," RCER Working Papers 335, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER).
- Szymon Wlazlowski & Bjorn Hagstromer & Monica Giulietti, 2011.
"Causality in crude oil prices,"
Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 43(24), pages 3337-3347.
- Stephen P. A. Brown & Raghav Virmani, 2007. "What's driving gasoline prices?," Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, vol. 2(oct).
- Oladunjoye, Olusegun, 2008. "Market structure and price adjustment in the U.S. wholesale gasoline markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 937-961, May.
- Wlazlowski, Szymon & Giulietti, Monica & Binner, Jane & Milas, Costas, 2009. "Price dynamics in European petroleum markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 99-108, January.
- Michael Ye & John Zyren & Joanne Shore & Michael Burdette, 2005. "Regional Comparisons, Spatial Aggregation, and Asymmetry of Price Pass-Through in U.S. Gasoline Markets," Atlantic Economic Journal, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 33(2), pages 179-192, June.
- Chauvin, V. & Devulder, A., 2008. "An Inflation Forecasting Model for the Euro Area," Working papers 192, Banque de France.
- Dées, Stéphane & Gasteuil, Audrey & Kaufmann, Robert K. & Mann, Michael, 2008. "Assessing the factors behind oil price changes," Working Paper Series 0855, European Central Bank.
- M. Galeotti & A. Lanza & M. Manera, 2001.
"Rockets and feathers revisited: an international comparison on European gasoline markets,"
Working Paper CRENoS
200112, Centre for North South Economic Research, University of Cagliari and Sassari, Sardinia.
- Galeotti, Marzio & Lanza, Alessandro & Manera, Matteo, 2003. "Rockets and feathers revisited: an international comparison on European gasoline markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(2), pages 175-190, March.
- Murat, Atilim & Tokat, Ekin, 2009. "Forecasting oil price movements with crack spread futures," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 85-90, January.
- Eckert, Andrew & West, Douglas S., 2005. "Price uniformity and competition in a retail gasoline market," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 56(2), pages 219-237, February.
- Rietveld, Piet & van Woudenberg, Stefan, 2005. "Why fuel prices differ," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 79-92, January.
- Markus Arpa & Jesus Crespo Cuaresma & Ernest Gnan & Maria Antoinette Silgoner, 2006. "Oil Price Shock, Energy Prices and Inflation – A Comparison of Austria and the EU," Monetary Policy & the Economy, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 1, pages 53–77.
- Asplund, Marcus & Eriksson, Rickard & Friberg, Richard, 2000.
" Price Adjustments by a Gasoline Retail Chain,"
Scandinavian Journal of Economics,
Wiley Blackwell, vol. 102(1), pages 101-21, March.
- Asplund, Marcus & Eriksson, Rickard & Friberg, Richard, 1997. "Price adjustments by a gasoline retail chain," SSE/EFI Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 194, Stockholm School of Economics.
- Chen, Shiu-Sheng, 2009. "Oil price pass-through into inflation," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 126-133, January.
- Axel Dreher & Tim Krieger, 2010.
"Diesel price convergence and mineral oil taxation in Europe,"
Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(15), pages 1955-1961.
- Axel Dreher & Tim Krieger, 2007. "Diesel price convergence and mineral oil taxation in Europe," Working Papers CIE 5, Paderborn University, CIE Center for International Economics.
- Axel Dreher & Tim Krieger, 2007. "Diesel price convergence and mineral oil taxation in Europe," KOF Working papers 07-182, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich.
- Banfi, Silvia & Filippini, Massimo & Hunt, Lester C., 2005. "Fuel tourism in border regions: The case of Switzerland," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(5), pages 689-707, September.
- Al-Gudhea, Salim & Kenc, Turalay & Dibooglu, Sel, 2007. "Do retail gasoline prices rise more readily than they fall?: A threshold cointegration approach," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 59(6), pages 560-574.
- Duffy-Deno, Kevin T., 1996. "Retail price asymmetries in local gasoline markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(1-2), pages 81-92, April.
- Abdulnasser Hatemi-J, 2008. "Tests for cointegration with two unknown regime shifts with an application to financial market integration," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 35(3), pages 497-505, November.
- Kaufmann, Robert K. & Dees, Stephane & Gasteuil, Audrey & Mann, Michael, 2008. "Oil prices: The role of refinery utilization, futures markets and non-linearities," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(5), pages 2609-2622, September.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:eneeco:v:31:y:2009:i:6:p:867-881. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Shamier, Wendy)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.