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Oil – The Earth’s blood, a paper on how to recover its critical declining prices by using a hedge vaccine through a leading core of countries termed as VIRUS

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  • Cazotto, Gabriel

Abstract

This paper introduces the description of whom are the main concerns about the currently and critical decline of oil prices, and how this countries, named as VIRUS, could turn out to be a “vaccine” into resulting on a hedge to correct and return to economic viable prices on the commodity. It uses as methodology the acceptance of five main regions or countries as the main characters on the supply and demand of crude oil globally, using a hedge through observation of old prices through a sextic polynomial equation to determine the price to be used into an econometric equation to forecast the hedge price scenario that could help the recovery of the global oil prices at mid-term, taking also into consideration a possible decline over the shale gas demand of the USA due environment question over fracking

Suggested Citation

  • Cazotto, Gabriel, 2015. "Oil – The Earth’s blood, a paper on how to recover its critical declining prices by using a hedge vaccine through a leading core of countries termed as VIRUS," MPRA Paper 65370, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:65370
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Arellano, Manuel & Bover, Olympia, 1995. "Another look at the instrumental variable estimation of error-components models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 68(1), pages 29-51, July.
    2. Blundell, Richard & Bond, Stephen, 1998. "Initial conditions and moment restrictions in dynamic panel data models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 87(1), pages 115-143, August.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    crude oil prices; oil demand and supply; main oil producers; financial hedge; hedge price forecast.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • F62 - International Economics - - Economic Impacts of Globalization - - - Macroeconomic Impacts
    • F64 - International Economics - - Economic Impacts of Globalization - - - Environment
    • Q21 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Renewable Resources and Conservation - - - Demand and Supply; Prices
    • Q40 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - General
    • Q43 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy and the Macroeconomy

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